瑞达期货国债期货日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 11th, the economic indicators may continue to decline, with the fundamentals under slight pressure, which supports the bond market. Currently, the liquidity gap is not large. The market has weak expectations for the actual scale of the central bank's bond - buying in the open market in November. Under the weak sentiment of the bond market, it is sensitive to news - related factors. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate weakly, and still awaits the determination of the direction from uncertain factors such as the central bank's treasury bond trading scale in November and the new fund redemption rules [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - Futures Price and Volume: T, TF, TS, and TL main - contract closing prices decreased by 0.07%, 0.06%, 0.02%, and 0.51% respectively; T, TF, TS main - contract volumes decreased by 6895, 353, and 214 respectively, while TL main - contract volume increased by 36154 [2] - Futures Spreads: Some spreads such as TL2603 - 2512, T03 - TL03 increased, while some like TF2603 - 2512, TF03 - T03 decreased [2] - Futures Positions: T main - contract position increased by 5501, TF and TS main - contract positions decreased by 330 and 224 respectively, and TL main - contract position decreased by 880. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS among the top 20 decreased, while that of TL increased [2] Bond Market - CTD Bond Net Prices: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 250018.IB and 230014.IB increased, while those of 230012.IB and 210005.IB decreased [2] - Active Bond Yields: The yields of 3 - year active bonds increased by 1.00bp, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year decreased by 1.00bp, 0.75bp, and 0.15bp respectively [2] Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 2.93bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 4.00bp, and the silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 3.00bp. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates decreased by 0.50bp, 2.00bp, and 1.20bp respectively [2] - LPR Rates: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] Open - Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse - repurchase operations was 1563 billion, the maturity scale was 3021 billion, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day operations, and a net withdrawal of 1458 billion [2] Industry News - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission encourages private investment and promotes its high - quality development [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission drafts a plan to launch a pilot program for commercial real - estate investment trust funds to promote the high - quality development of the REITs market [2] Key Events to Watch - On December 3rd at 16:30, listen to the speech of ECB President Lagarde; on December 5th at 23:00, pay attention to the US September core PCE price index [3]