国投期货软商品日报-20251202

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market for soft commodities shows diverse trends. Some products like cotton and pulp have specific price - related and supply - demand factors influencing their market conditions, and different investment suggestions are given for each commodity based on their unique situations [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, breaking through the shock range. Although new cotton production increased significantly this year, commercial inventory is not high and the sales progress is fast, providing strong support to the market. Currently in the off - season, overall demand remains stable. The market has certain positive expectations for the new - year planting in China. As of November 27th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 528.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.1 million tons. As of November 15th, the cotton commercial inventory was 363.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.43 million tons. The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable overall, with insufficient new orders. After the breakthrough of Zhengzhou cotton, the industry can consider hedging opportunities, and the operation should be to wait and see or go long with a light position on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, the US sugar price pulled back. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased this year, the sugar - making ratio increased, compensating for the loss of sugar production, and the sugar production will remain at a high level. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand started sugarcane crushing, and due to good weather conditions, the sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar futures were weak. In October, the import volume of syrup decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively high, and there is still some pressure on the supply side. The market's trading focus has shifted to the output estimate of the next sugar - making season. The sugar price is expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. In the spot market, transactions in Shandong were mainly for small and medium - sized apples, and other apple sources had few transactions. In the northwest region, merchants packed their own apple sources and sent them to the market, and the mainstream price remained stable. As of November 28th, the national cold - storage apple inventory in the new season was 729.35 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.21%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory volume to sales expectations. There is a high divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction situation [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - number rubber (NR) rose slightly, and the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) rose sharply. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price increased. The global natural rubber supply will shift from the high - yield period to the low - yield period, and the Yunnan production area in China has entered the suspension - cutting period first. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly last week. The demand for rubber showed average performance. Natural rubber continued to accumulate inventory, while synthetic rubber started to reduce inventory. The cost support was stable, and market sentiment improved. The strategy is to go long on rebounds and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose significantly, and the 01 contract significantly reduced its positions. The spot price followed the futures price up. As of November 27th, 2025, the inventory of the mainstream sample ports of Chinese pulp was 217.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The domestic port inventory is still at a high level, the supply is still relatively loose, and the pulp demand continues to be weak. The pulp price rebounded significantly after falling near the previous low, and the medium - term trend may still be range - bound. The operation should be to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the price quoted at Taicang Port decreased by 10 yuan. The external price quote is still high, and the domestic spot price remains weak. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may continue to remain at a low level. The port delivery volume is maintained above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The low inventory provides certain support to the price, and the operation should be to wait and see [7]