黑色金属日报-20251202

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Steel market has supply pressure easing but weak domestic demand, with the spot price relatively firm and the futures price continuing to rebound [2] - Iron ore market has a loose supply-demand situation, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal markets have expectations of downstream replenishment, with the coke price likely to maintain a rebound and the coking coal price likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][5] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets have the futures price fluctuating, with the supply decreasing and the inventory slightly declining [6][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Thread: Surface demand and production decline, inventory decreases, and the market continues to decline [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Demand declines, production increases, inventory slowly decreases, and the pressure remains to be alleviated [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments increase, domestic arrivals decline but remain high, and port inventories continue to accumulate [3] - Demand: Steel surface demand is low, iron water is in a production reduction trend, and the demand has room to weaken [3] - Market: The macro atmosphere is warm, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - Supply: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases [4] - Demand: Downstream demand has resilience, but the steel mill's profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is strong [4] - Market: The price is expected to maintain a rebound [4] Coking Coal - Supply: Coking coal mine production increases slightly, and the spot auction price mainly decreases [5] - Demand: Similar to coke [5] - Market: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Silicon Manganese - Supply: Production decreases slightly, and inventory slowly accumulates [6] - Demand: Iron water production rebounds to a high level [6] - Market: The price fluctuates, and the manganese ore price rises [6] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply decreases, and inventory slightly declines [7] - Demand: Iron water production rebounds, export demand declines, and metal magnesium production increases [7] - Market: The price fluctuates, and there are expectations of cost reduction [7]