公募REITs三季报：整体符合预期，稳定优于周期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The Q3 2025 quarterly report met expectations, showing a divergence between stable and cyclical sectors. After excluding the impact of expansion and fundraising, the Q3 2025 revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year. The completion rates of revenue and distributable income were 95% and 98% respectively, both showing marginal increases. Structurally, the trend of the cyclical sector declining and the stable sector growing steadily continued. Based on performance and its continuity, the sectors could be divided into three tiers: affordable housing and consumption > concession rights > industrial parks and warehousing [4]. - The stable sectors of affordable housing and consumption continued to grow steadily. After excluding the impact of expansion and fundraising, the occupancy rate of affordable housing showed little fluctuation. The revenue of the consumption sector increased by 4% year-on-year. The completion rates of revenue and distributable income of the two sectors, excluding new bonds, were both above 100%, ranking high among all sectors [4]. - Concession rights continued to show wide - range fluctuations. The environmental protection sector had positive fluctuations, with the revenue completion rate reaching the target, and the distributable income completion rate of Fuguo Shouchuang Water Service exceeding 130%. Negative fluctuations were mainly seen in transportation, energy, and water conservancy. The fluctuations in concession rights were often related to factors such as water, solar, and wind resources and road network changes, usually short - term disturbances. A relatively long - term change worth tracking was the electricity marketization of the energy sector. From the Q3 2025 quarterly report, the progress of electricity marketization transactions varied among projects. For example, the market - oriented electricity volume of the Hubei Jingtai project of Zhonghang Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT had reached 95%, while Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT did not participate in electricity marketization transactions in 2025 [4]. - The cyclical sectors of industrial parks and warehousing and logistics continued to decline, with "trading price for volume" being common. The occupancy rate of industrial parks remained flat, and the average rent decreased by 3% month - on - month. The average occupancy rate of warehousing and logistics remained flat month - on - month, and the average rent decreased by 1%. Many bonds with declining performance mentioned the new supply in the surrounding areas. The signal of rent stabilization might not be seen until the primary market supply of warehousing and logistics slowed down. The revenue completion rates of industrial parks and warehousing and logistics were 89% and 92% respectively, ranking medium - low among all sectors [4]. - Before late January 2026, valuation - driven factors were limited, and it was a performance vacuum period. Supply and demand might become the main trading line. Since October, the fluctuations of stocks and bonds had converged, and REITs also showed a narrow - range oscillation. Currently, the difference between the cyclical IRR and the stable IRR was at the 59th percentile, with a relatively reasonable pricing. Before late January 2026, it was a performance vacuum period, and fundamentals had limited impact on the market. Therefore, supply and demand might be the main trading line in the next two months. In the short term, the supply - demand balance might be neutral to bearish. Currently, the primary market supply was stable, but financial investment institutions might sell unlocked bonds. Strategy suggestions: First, pay attention to the potential buying opportunities of high - quality targets brought by bond unlocking. Second, the primary market could allocate a large amount, and the price difference between the primary and secondary markets had enabled most primary subscriptions to achieve positive returns since this year. Third, in terms of structure, recommend the stable - performance sectors and the new infrastructure sectors with stable industry operations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 REITs Overall - Revenue Growth Rate: After excluding the impact of expansion and fundraising, the Q3 2025 REITs revenue decreased by 4% year - on - year, with marginal stability. Structurally, the stable sectors maintained positive year - on - year growth, while the more cyclical industrial parks and warehousing and logistics still had negative growth. Affordable housing, consumption, and environmental protection had positive year - on - year growth, with the environmental protection sector showing marginal improvement. Industrial parks, warehousing and logistics, transportation, and energy still had negative year - on - year growth, but the growth rates of industrial parks and warehousing and logistics increased slightly [17]. - Financial Completion Rate: After excluding new bonds, the market - wide operating revenue completion rate was 95%. Sectors with high revenue completion rates were environmental protection, affordable housing, and consumption; those with low completion rates were municipal, water conservancy, and industrial parks, while the completion rates of other sectors were above 90%. After excluding new bonds, the market - wide distributable income completion rate was 98%. The distributable income completion rate of the energy sector still lagged behind the revenue completion rate, but most individual bonds improved compared to Q2 2025; the low distributable income completion rate of the municipal sector was in line with its revenue. The completion rates of other sectors were above 90% [22]. - Market Reaction: Since October, stocks, bonds, and REITs had all seen a convergence in volatility. Structurally, there was a lack of driving forces, and the spread between cyclical and stable sectors oscillated in a medium - level range. In terms of valuation, there were no obvious driving factors, and the impact of the quarterly report on the market was prominent. The rise and fall of REITs basically matched the performance. Sectors with high performance completion rates and high operating revenue growth rates, such as environmental protection, consumption, and affordable housing, had relatively high increases; industrial parks, warehousing and logistics, and the water conservancy sector with low revenue completion rates had relatively large declines. At the individual bond level, among the generally weak industrial parks and warehousing and logistics, individual bonds with smaller month - on - month revenue declines were generally more resistant to decline [26]. 3.2 By Sector - Industrial Parks: After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable income completion rate were 89% and 92% respectively. The occupancy rate remained flat, and rent declines were common. Excluding the Guojun Lingang Industrial Park REIT affected by expansion and fundraising, 65% of industrial park REITs had a month - on - month rent decline, with an average decline of 3%. Regional competition and rent arrears were the main problems in the operation of industrial parks in Q3 2025 [36]. - Warehousing and Logistics: After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable income completion rate were 92% and 96% respectively. The sector continued to trade price for volume, with the average occupancy rate remaining flat month - on - month and the average rent decreasing by 1% month - on - month. Many individual bonds with declining performance mentioned the new supply in the surrounding areas [41]. - Affordable Housing: The sector's revenue completion rate and distributable income completion rate were 101% and 103% respectively. The occupancy rates of underlying assets fluctuated, but the amplitude was mostly within 2 percentage points, showing little overall fluctuation [48]. - Consumption: The consumption sector's revenue increased by 4% year - on - year. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable income completion rate were 101% and 110% respectively. The revenue of Huaxia Shouchuang Outlet Mall REIT decreased by 14% month - on - month, possibly due to the off - peak season and new competitors. Yifangda Huawei Farmers' Market REIT diversified its business forms [53]. - Data Centers: As of the end of Q3 2025, all new infrastructure (data centers) were new bonds listed for less than a quarter, and the financial completion rates were all below 80%. The operation was stable, and there were no major events affecting the operation of underlying assets [58]. - Transportation: The transportation sector's revenue decreased by 3% year - on - year. The revenue and distributable income completion rates were both 98%, ranking medium among all sectors. The operating performance of Huatai Jiangsu Jiaokong REIT was outstanding, with a year - on - year increase of 30% and a marginal increase of 16 percentage points in the growth rate; Zhongjin Anhui Jiaokong also had a positive year - on - year growth rate [62]. - Energy: The Q3 2025 revenue growth rate was - 12%. The energy sector was affected by water, solar, and wind resources, with large single - quarter fluctuations and weak continuity. A relatively long - term change worth tracking was the electricity marketization of the energy sector, and the progress of electricity marketization transactions varied among projects. The distributable income completion rates of most projects increased by more than 10 percentage points compared to Q2 2025, which might be related to the concentrated arrival of renewable energy subsidies in the second half of the year and the factoring operations of fund managers [69]. - Public Utilities: The environmental protection sector's revenue met the target. The operating revenue completion rate of Guojun Jinan Heating was only 73%, possibly because heating fees were recognized during the heating season, and Q3 2025 was not the heating season [76].