供给端收缩预期较强，锌价下方支撑稳固：有色金属周报-锌-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, market risk appetite has risen, and the upward pressure on non - ferrous metals has weakened. The raw material end is tightening, TC is prone to fall but hard to rise, some smelters have maintenance arrangements, and there are expectations of production cuts. Although LME zinc inventories continue to rise, the speed is slow, and the back structure has deepened again, providing some support for zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a wide - range consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: SMM 1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.31% to 22,300 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose by 0.13% to 22,425 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose by 1.97% to 3,051 US dollars/ton [13]. - Basis and Spread: The report presents various data charts of basis, spread (including spot premium and discount in different regions, differences between contract months), etc., but no specific summarized analysis is provided in the text [14][16]. 3.2 TC Continues to Fall, Pay Attention to the Ingot - End Starting Situation 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Port Inventory: As of November 28, the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 150,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 302,000 tons, an increase of 27,800 tons compared with the previous period. The CZSPT's latest quarterly meeting announced that the guidance price range for the US - dollar processing fee for imported zinc concentrate procurement before the end of the first quarter of 2026 is 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton (average value) [34]. - Profit: As of December 1, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,942 yuan/metal ton. In October, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 4.3489 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59% [41]. - Processing Fees: Both domestic and imported TC have continued to decline. As of November 28, 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 2,050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate index was 61.25 US dollars/dry ton [42]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Production Profit: Due to the decline in zinc prices and TC, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to decline. As of December 1, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 1,952 yuan/ton. It is expected that the zinc ingot production in November will slightly decline to about 610,000 tons [51]. - Import Situation: The import profit window has been closed. As of November 28, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 100,600 tons [55]. 3.3 Orders are Light, Galvanizing Start - Up Rate Declines - Start - Up Rate: The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points to 56.54%. In the off - season of consumption, demand declined, and orders were generally flat [62]. - Inventory: Both the raw material inventory and finished - product inventory of galvanizing enterprises decreased. During the week, zinc prices fluctuated and sorted out, and galvanizing enterprises mainly replenished inventory as needed, resulting in a slight reduction in raw material inventory. Due to poor demand, downstream purchases were average, and finished - product inventory fluctuated slightly [65]. 3.4 Poor Demand, Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Start - Up Rate Fluctuates Slightly - Price: The prices of die - casting zinc alloys declined. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.30% to 23,045 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.30% to 23,595 yuan/ton [74]. - Start - Up Rate: The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate increased by 0.28 percentage points to 51.3%. Some enterprises increased production during the week, driving a slight increase in the start - up rate. In the terminal market, electronic orders performed well, while real - estate hardware, auto - parts orders, and luggage zipper orders were generally flat or did not meet expectations [77]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased. During the week, zinc prices fluctuated and sorted out, and alloy factories replenished inventory when prices were low, driving an increase in raw material inventory. The finished - product inventory decreased as shipments improved slightly [81]. 3.5 Some Enterprises Increase Production, Zinc Oxide Start - Up Rate Increases Slightly - Price: The price of zinc oxide declined. The average price of zinc oxide ≥ 99.7% decreased by 0.47% to 21,400 yuan/ton [89]. - Start - Up Rate: The zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.12 percentage points to 57.37%. Some enterprises increased production, driving an increase in the start - up rate. In terms of demand, electronic - grade demand was good, the ceramic - grade terminal's goods - taking rhythm accelerated, but enterprise profits were compressed, feed - grade demand weakened, and rubber - grade orders were relatively stable [92]. - Inventory: Both the raw material inventory and finished - product inventory of zinc oxide enterprises increased. Enterprises replenished inventory as needed, and previous arrivals were put into storage, resulting in an increase in raw material inventory. Some terminal demand slowed down, leading to a slight accumulation of finished - product inventory [95]. 3.6 Decrease in Arrivals, Decline in Zinc Ingot Social Inventory - Social Inventory: As of November 27, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 140,800 tons, and the inventory continued to decline. Some smelters had maintenance during the week, and the arrivals in Guangdong and Shanghai were relatively small. Coupled with downstream pick - ups, the zinc ingot social inventory declined. The SMM zinc ingot bonded - area inventory was 3,600 tons, unchanged from the previous period [102]. - Exchange Inventory: As of November 28, the SHFE inventory was 95,900 tons, a decrease, and the LME inventory was 52,000 tons, continuing to rise [105]. - Downstream Raw Material Inventory: The report presents relevant data charts, but no specific summarized analysis is provided in the text [106]. - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Table: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance table from September 2025 to September 2024, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc ingots in each month [111].