金融产品深度报告20251202：恒生科技ETF，2025年11月复盘及12月展望

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a cumulative decline of 5.23% from October 31 to November 28, 2025, with a trading volume of approximately CNY 14,557 billion[10] - As of November 28, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 23.38, positioned at the 33.40% historical percentile since its inception on July 27, 2020, indicating relatively low historical valuation[15] - The risk degree (TR) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 7.13 on November 28, 2025, suggesting a low investment risk at the current market level[16] Macro and Policy Analysis - Domestic demand data showed improvement, but the manufacturing PMI for October fell below the expansion threshold, negatively impacting market confidence[19] - The combination of "fiscal bond issuance + monetary policy continuation" effectively mitigated funding disturbances, while dovish signals from the Federal Reserve stabilized the valuation environment[29] - The release of multiple industry policies, particularly in new energy and satellite IoT, provided long-term support for the relevant sectors' fundamentals[29] Industry Dynamics - The consumer technology sector showed structural differentiation in earnings reports, with companies like Meituan and JD.com facing profit declines due to intensified competition, while Tencent and Xiaomi improved profitability through international expansion and premiumization[40] - AI breakthroughs opened new commercial pathways, with the disparity in corporate earnings becoming a key variable affecting market expectations[40] Future Outlook - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to maintain a bottom consolidation and slight upward trend in December 2025, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations[58] - Key upcoming events include the December FOMC meeting and the release of various macroeconomic data, which will significantly impact market sentiment and index performance[58]