黑色金属月报：钢材：政策窗口期，宏观预期提振钢价低位修复-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In December, entering the policy window period, domestic and foreign macro - factors boost market expectations, and steel prices may rebound from low levels. Currently, the fundamentals have limited driving force, and short - term macro expectations may drive steel prices to recover from low levels, so cautious operation is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Price: In November, domestic steel spot prices showed mixed trends. As of the end of the month, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the end of October; the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the end of October [5]. - Output: On November 27, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons. The inventory of steel mills decreased by 10.2 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 22.09 tons. The apparent demand was 888 tons, down 6.16 tons month - on - month [5]. - Profit: As of November 28, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive tax cost of rebar was 3,199 yuan/ton, with a profit of about +21 yuan/ton; the profit of hot - rolled coil was about 20 yuan/ton. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate power cost of rebar in East China was about 3,243 yuan/ton, and the off - peak power cost was about 3,107 yuan/ton. The flat - rate power profit of rebar was about - 83 yuan/ton, and the off - peak power profit was about +53 yuan/ton [5]. - Scrap Steel: As of November 27, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,080 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.9%, up 0.9 percentage points month - on - month. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 51.4 tons, up 0.59 tons month - on - month. The overall demand for scrap steel is expected to increase, and the scrap steel price may rebound [6]. - Macro Data: In 2025 from January to October, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In October, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) decreased by 8.91% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 6.67% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 23.22% year - on - year [24]. 3.2 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar shrank this week [38]. 3.3 Supply - Long - Process: As of November 28, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from November 21; the daily average pig iron output was 234.7 tons, down 1.6 tons from November 21 [41]. - Short - Process: As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - furnace plants was 34.9%, up 0.9 percentage points; as of November 28, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was 112.35 yuan, up 46.32 yuan [44]. 3.4 Demand - Rebar: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 176.74 tons, down 4.43 tons; the short - process output was 29.34 tons, up 2.55 tons. The original sample rebar mill inventory was 146.73 tons, down 6.59 tons; the social inventory was 384.75 tons, down 15.27 tons; the total inventory was 531.48 tons, down 21.86 tons [57][72]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: This week, the output of hot - rolled coil was 319.01 tons, up 3 tons month - on - month. The apparent demand was 320.22 tons, down 4.2 tons month - on - month. The mill inventory remained flat month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 1.21 tons, and the overall inventory decreased by 1.21 tons [75]. - Export: As of November 28, the FOB export price of China was 450 US dollars, up 5 US dollars; the export profit was - 19 US dollars, down 0.1 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 222.26 tons, down 83.04 tons month - on - month, with a month - on - month decline of 27% [85].