国投期货农产品日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans (domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, while the US soybean market will likely oscillate with an upward bias, influenced by South American weather and export factors [2][3] - The soybean meal supply in the domestic market is ample, which exerts downward pressure on prices. The 05 contract's upward breakthrough depends on US soybean exports and potential South American production cuts [3] - The soybean and palm oil markets are expected to fluctuate within a range. Although there are some positive supply - side signals, high inventory levels may limit price rebounds [3] - The rapeseed market lacks trend - driving factors and is expected to trade in a range in the short term [5] - Corn futures are expected to remain volatile at high levels, with concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast [6] - Live pig prices may form a double - bottom pattern, with a high probability of a second trough in the first half of next year [7] - The egg futures market shows a mixed performance, with the far - month contracts not suitable for chasing highs and the near - month contracts likely to be weak [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs [Soybean] - Domestic soybeans are in a sideways and slightly bullish trend, with stable and firm spot prices. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight, leading to optimistic market expectations [2] - US soybeans are influenced by South American weather and export factors. South American weather is dry in parts before mid - December, and overall, US soybeans are expected to be slightly bullish [2][3] [Soybean & Soybean Meal] - In the new South American season, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is normal, while Argentina's is slow due to weather. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output is estimated to be 1.772 billion tons, a 0.9% reduction from the November forecast [3] - The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the crushing volume has increased. The soybean meal inventory has rebounded to a high level, maintaining a loose supply situation. The expected inventory at the end of December is around 900,000 tons [3] - The upward breakthrough of the 05 contract depends on US soybean exports and potential South American production cuts. It is advisable to observe for fluctuations before looking for long - entry opportunities [3] [Soybean Oil & Palm Oil] - Malaysian palm oil had a slight production cut in November, but demand was weak, resulting in inventory accumulation. Indonesia lowered its December export reference price and tax, which is beneficial for exports [3] - If the supply - side production cuts are sustained, it may signal a bottoming - out of prices. However, high overseas inventories may limit price rebounds [3] - US soybeans are expected to be slightly bullish, which will support soybean oil prices. The soybean and palm oil markets are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] [Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil] - The rapeseed market is in a weak and sideways trend due to a lack of trading catalysts. The arrival of Australian rapeseeds has eased supply concerns [5] - Rapeseed meal demand is weak as the aquaculture feed season is off - peak, and it is not competitive in terms of unit - protein price compared to soybean meal [5] - Rapeseed oil is mainly in a de - stocking phase. Supply depends on Australian rapeseed crushing and Russian rapeseed oil arrivals, while demand benefits from the seasonal peak in the fourth quarter [5] [Corn] - Corn futures are volatile at high levels, driven by strong spot prices. The supply of new grain in the north is lower than expected, and there are concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast [6] - The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is expected to be volatile at high levels, and it is advisable to wait and see. The 03 and 05 contracts should wait for pull - backs [6] [Live Pigs] - Live pig futures have narrow fluctuations, and spot prices are slightly lower. Southern curing will start soon, but there is also pressure from the出栏 of second - fattened pigs [7] - Historically, the pig cycle bottom often shows a double - bottom pattern. The low price in October was likely the first bottom, and there is a high probability of a second trough in the first half of next year [7] [Eggs] - Egg futures showed a sharp rise followed by a decline, with a reduction of over 10,000 lots in positions. The far - month contracts are not suitable for chasing highs due to high premiums [8] - The near - month contracts are at a premium to the spot, and the spot prices are slightly weak today. The near - month contracts may be weak [8]