国投期货化工日报-20251202

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Bullish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: Bullish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: Bullish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: Bearish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: Bearish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - PX: Bullish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - PTA: Bearish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Short Fiber: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Bottle Chip: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Methanol: Bullish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Urea: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - PVC: Bearish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Glass: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, and factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand have significant impacts on prices [2][3][4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly, and spot prices rise slightly due to demand support and limited external supply [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillate. Polyethylene supply changes little, and downstream demand is weak. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and seasonal demand is in a slump [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a low - level oscillation pattern. Although there is an expectation of supply improvement, current inventory pressure is high [3] - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly. Due to the weakening of raw material pure benzene, it is expected to run weakly in the short term [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices oscillate. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA is expected to have its processing margin repaired [4] - Ethylene glycol supply improves marginally, but it is expected to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival, remaining weak in the medium term [4] - Short fiber has no new investment pressure, and its price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle chip demand weakens, and it is mainly driven by cost [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol has insufficient upward momentum, and the market is in a state of long - short game, likely to continue to oscillate in the short term [5] - Urea prices rise in an oscillating manner. Although supply pressure is partially relieved by exports, the upward space may be limited [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC shows a slightly strong oscillating trend. Although there is supply pressure, it is not advisable to be overly bearish due to cost support [6] - Caustic soda runs weakly due to high supply and insufficient demand, and attention should be paid to profit changes [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillates strongly. Although there is a supply improvement expectation, it is in a pattern of oversupply in the long term [7] - Glass prices run weakly. Demand is insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]