地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：黑龙江篇

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Heilongjiang Province has abundant agricultural and forestry resources and excellent conditions for animal husbandry development. Its economic aggregate is at the lower level in the country, with a slowdown in economic growth in 2024 and a low - ranking per capita GDP. The tertiary industry is the main driving force for economic growth, and the cultural tourism industry maintains high - speed development [4][5]. - In 2024, Heilongjiang Province's general public budget revenue and government - funded revenue increased, but the scale ranks low in the country. The fiscal self - sufficiency ability is weak, and the provincial government's comprehensive financial resources are strongly supported by superior subsidy income. The government debt ratio is relatively high [4]. - The economic strength of prefecture - level cities in Heilongjiang Province varies significantly. Harbin leads in economic development. Except for Daqing, the per capita GDP of other prefecture - level cities is lower than the national average. Harbin has much higher comprehensive financial resources, but most prefecture - level cities have a high dependence on superior subsidies, and the debt ratio of most prefecture - level cities has risen rapidly [4]. - With some prefecture - level cities in Heilongjiang Province completing the early redemption of urban investment bonds, the net financing amount of bonds has been negative. Currently, only Harbin and Mudanjiang have urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds, and the overall scale of outstanding urban investment bonds is small. In 2024, the cash flow from financing activities of urban investment enterprises in each prefecture - level city showed a net outflow, and the short - term solvency indicators of urban investment enterprises in Mudanjiang are weak [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Heilongjiang Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development Status - Heilongjiang Province is rich in agricultural, forestry, and mineral resources, and is an important national energy and raw material base, as well as the country's most important commodity grain base and grain reserve base. The province has strong tourism development momentum, with 135.083 million domestic and foreign tourists received during the 2024 - 2025 ice and snow season, a year - on - year increase of 18.5%, and tourist spending of 211.72 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30.7% [6]. - The population has a net outflow, and the urbanization rate is slightly higher than the national average. As of the end of 2024, the permanent population was 30.29 million, a decrease of 1.08% from the end of the previous year, and the urbanization rate was 68.04%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points from the end of the previous year [8]. - The economic aggregate is at the lower level in the country, with a low - ranking per capita GDP. In 2024, the GDP was 1.64769 trillion yuan, ranking 25th in the country, with a growth rate of 3.20%, lower than the national average. The per capita GDP was 54,100 yuan, ranking 30th in the country. From January to August 2025, the GDP was 708.77 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [9]. - The proportion of the secondary industry has decreased, while that of the tertiary industry has increased significantly. In 2024, the three - industry structure was adjusted to 19.4:25.2:55.4. The added value of the first industry was 320.33 billion yuan, a 2.9% increase; the second industry was 414.73 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year decrease; and the third industry was 912.62 billion yuan, a 4.7% year - on - year increase [12]. - Heilongjiang Province plans to build a core area of the national food security industrial belt, create a "433" new industrial system, and promote the development of four new economic industries: digital economy, biological economy, ice and snow economy, and creative design [13]. - The provincial government has introduced a series of policies to promote economic development, covering digital economy, tourism, private economy, service consumption, and other aspects [17]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - From 2022 to 2024, the general public budget revenue of Heilongjiang Province increased year by year, but its scale ranked low in the country, and the fiscal self - sufficiency ability was weak. The government - funded revenue fluctuated and increased, with a relatively small overall scale. Superior subsidy income accounted for 74.47%, 75.74%, and 75.55% of the comprehensive financial resources respectively, providing strong support [18][19]. - The government debt ratio is relatively high. At the end of 2024, the local government debt ratio and the local government debt - to - GDP ratio were 145.32% and 58.43% respectively, ranking 8th and 25th among 31 provinces (sorted from low to high) [20]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Heilongjiang Province 3.2.1 Economic Strength of Prefecture - Level Cities - The economic strength of prefecture - level cities in Heilongjiang Province varies significantly. Harbin leads, followed by Daqing, Qiqihar, and Suihua. Except for Daqing, the per capita GDP of other prefecture - level cities is lower than the national average. Harbin, Mudanjiang, and the Daxing'anling region have a high proportion of the tertiary industry, while Daqing has a high proportion of the second industry [23]. - Each region has different industrial layouts. The Harbin modern urban circle focuses on biomedicine, equipment manufacturing, and green food processing; the eastern city group focuses on green food processing and energy chemical industry; the ecological region focuses on ecological tourism, forestry, and ecological agriculture. As of the end of March 2025, there are 40 domestic listed companies in prefecture - level cities, with a total market value of 366.95 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.0% [24]. - In 2024, except for Jixi, Hegang, and Qitaihe, the economy of other prefecture - level cities in Heilongjiang Province grew. Harbin and Daqing had the leading GDP scales. Daqing had the highest per capita GDP in the province. The urbanization levels of most prefecture - level cities were acceptable, but Qiqihar, Suihua, and Jiamusi had relatively low levels. Harbin, Mudanjiang, and the Daxing'anling region had a tertiary - industry - dominated industrial structure, while Daqing had a secondary - industry - dominated structure [26]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - Level Cities - Fiscal Revenue: The general public budget revenue of prefecture - level cities in Heilongjiang Province varies greatly. Harbin's general budget revenue is much higher. In 2024, the general public budget revenue of Qitaihe, Daqing, and Qiqihar decreased year - on - year, while that of the rest increased. Except for Harbin, Daqing, Mudanjiang, and the Daxing'anling region, the tax revenue of other prefecture - level cities decreased to varying degrees. The tax revenue ratio was not high, and only Harbin and Daqing had a tax revenue ratio of over 60%. Except for Daqing, the fiscal self - sufficiency ratio of other prefecture - level cities was below 30% [29]. - The government - funded revenue of some prefecture - level cities increased, while that of others decreased. The superior subsidy income of each prefecture - level city contributed significantly to the comprehensive financial resources. In 2024, Harbin, Qiqihar, Suihua, and Jiamusi received over 30 billion yuan in superior subsidy income [31][32]. - Debt Situation: At the end of 2024, the government debt balance of each prefecture - level city increased, with Harbin having the largest balance of 348.631 billion yuan. The debt balance of Jixi, Jiamusi, and Mudanjiang increased rapidly. The debt - to - GDP ratio of each prefecture - level city increased significantly. The debt ratio of Heihe changed little, while that of the rest increased significantly. The debt ratios of Yichun, Qiqihar, Heihe, and the Daxing'anling region were below 100%, and Harbin's was the highest, exceeding 250% [32]. - Debt Management Policies and Measures: Heilongjiang Province manages debt by budget repayment, asset revitalization, and write - off. Some prefecture - level cities have established risk emergency response plans. From 2023 to 2024 and from January to October 2025, the province issued 31.3 billion yuan, 50.7 billion yuan, and 48.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds respectively. The provincial government has strengthened the management of "three guarantees" expenditures and local debt monitoring [35]. 3.3 Solvency of Urban Investment Enterprises in Heilongjiang Province 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises As of October 14, 2025, there are 4 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Heilongjiang Province, all at the prefecture - level. Among them, 3 are in Harbin and 1 is in Mudanjiang. Since 2024, the urban investment bonds of Qiqihar and Daqing have been redeemed in advance. There are 2 AA + - rated urban investment enterprises, both in Harbin, and the rest are AA - rated [39]. 3.3.2 Bond Issuance of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds in Heilongjiang decreased year - on - year. The net financing amount of bonds has been negative. As of October 14, 2025, the outstanding bond scale of urban investment enterprises in the province was 11.488 billion yuan, a 45.26% decrease from the end of 2024. In 2024, the issuance scale was 2 billion yuan, with 910 million yuan in Harbin and 1.09 billion yuan in Mudanjiang. From the beginning of 2025 to October 14, 2025, the issuance scale was 5.286 billion yuan, concentrated in Harbin [40]. - In 2024, the issuance scales of AA + and AA - rated urban investment enterprises accounted for 37.50% and 62.50% of the total provincial scale respectively. In 2024, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 3.021 billion yuan, and the net financing of urban investment bonds in Harbin was 160 million yuan. Due to early bond redemption and other factors, the net financing amounts of urban investment bonds in Daqing, Qiqihar, and Mudanjiang were - 1.316 billion yuan, - 1.16 billion yuan, and - 705 million yuan respectively [41]. 3.3.3 Solvency Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - The total debt capitalization ratio of urban investment enterprises with bond issuance in Heilongjiang Province decreased and was below 30%. In 2024, the cash flow from financing activities of urban investment enterprises in each prefecture - level city showed a net outflow. The short - term solvency indicators of urban investment enterprises in Mudanjiang are weak [42]. - As of the end of 2024, the total debt scale of urban investment enterprises with bond issuance in Heilongjiang Province exceeded 60 billion yuan, with 46.814 billion yuan in Harbin, 11.784 billion yuan in Mudanjiang, and 6.943 billion yuan in Daqing. The short - term debt ratios of Harbin, Mudanjiang, and Daqing were 38.52%, 21.70%, and 46.46% respectively [42]. - The overall concentrated repayment pressure of urban investment enterprises with bond issuance in Heilongjiang Province from 2025 to 2026 is acceptable. As of the end of 2024, the coverage of cash - like assets to short - term debt of urban investment enterprises in Mudanjiang was only 0.24 times, with relatively large short - term solvency pressure [43][46]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Prefecture - Level Cities for the Debt of Urban Investment Enterprises The prefecture - level cities with outstanding bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Heilongjiang Province are only Harbin and Mudanjiang. In Harbin, the scale of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" is large, and the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources exceeds 300% [48].