沥青日报：震荡下行-20251202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to experience weak and volatile price trends. The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand will further weaken, and the current market is cautious about winter storage contracts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, some refineries will switch production, and the operating rate will rise slightly. [1] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. Road asphalt operating rate dropped by 5 percentage points to 29% due to capital and weather constraints. With the drop in northern temperatures, road construction is ending, demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited. [1] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years. [1] - Crude Oil: The latest sanctions by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 2.41% to 2,916 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,910 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,983 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 14,100 to 136,104 lots. [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 2,960 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 44 yuan/ton, at a neutral level. [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years. From January to October, national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation from January to October was - 4.3%, and that of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%. [4] - Inventory: As of the week of November 28, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years. [4]