原油日报：原油震荡运行-20251202

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that crude oil prices will oscillate at a low level. Although the market is currently in a state of supply surplus, the recent difficulty in reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium by Ukrainian drones, and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut are likely to support the price [1]. Summary by Section Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026, and eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reaffirmed the suspension of production increases in Q1 2026 [1]. - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that US refined oil inventories increased more than expected, and due to increased net imports, US crude oil inventories also increased more than expected, leading to a slight increase in overall oil inventories [1][4]. - US crude oil production is near its historical high, but the number of active US oil drilling rigs decreased by 12, raising expectations of limited US crude oil growth at low prices [1]. - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to achieve in the near term. There is a concern about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya due to geopolitical tensions [1]. - The market is worried about crude oil demand as the consumer peak season ends, the US ISM manufacturing index in November decreased month - on - month and has been in contraction for nine consecutive months. OPEC+ continues to increase production, Middle - East exports are rising, and global floating crude oil storage is increasing, resulting in a supply - surplus situation [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract, 2601, rose 0.09% to 453.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 450.1 yuan/ton and a high of 456.0 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1458 to 31,766 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报: It expects global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3]. - OPEC月报: It adjusted the third - quarter global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA: Its annual "World Energy Outlook" predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050. The IEA月报 raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day, the 2026 supply growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day, the 2025 demand growth rate by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day, and the 2026 demand growth rate by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day [3]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending November 21, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected: 55,000 barrels), 4.50% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected: 745,000 barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected: 556,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 68,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's September crude oil production was revised down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day. Its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September, reaching 43.02 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week of November 21 decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day [4]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year [4]. - Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year [6]. - Diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. The overall US crude oil product single - week supply increased by 0.41% month - on - month due to the rebound in gasoline and other oil products [6].