PVC日报：震荡运行-20251202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to move in a range. Although there are some positive factors such as the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the meeting on price competition standards, the recent upside space is limited due to factors like high inventory, upcoming traditional demand off - season, and falling quotes from China Taiwan's Formosa Plastics [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC production capacity utilization increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream PVC production capacity utilization is basically stable. India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about China's exports to India, and the anti - dumping tax is likely to be cancelled. However, Formosa Plastics' December quotes fell by 30 - 60 dollars/ton, and last week's export orders decreased. Social inventory increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time. The meeting on price competition standards gives some boost to commodities, but factors like the end of maintenance at some enterprises, high futures warehouse receipts, and the upcoming demand off - season limit the upside space [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and moved in a range, with a low of 4544 yuan/ton, a high of 4576 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 4575 yuan/ton, up 0.31% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 47,480 lots to 1,024,038 lots [2] - On December 2, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4500 yuan/ton, the V2601 contract's futures closing price was 4489 yuan/ton, the basis was - 75 yuan/ton, weakening by 3 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the operation of some plants such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai improved, and the PVC production capacity utilization increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22%. New production capacities including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua are in production or trial - run at different loads [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, down 14.7% year - on - year; the sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year - on - year; the new construction area of houses was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.8% year - on - year; and the completed area of houses was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.9% year - on - year. As of the week ending November 30, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.17% week - on - week but is still near the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week ending November 27, PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remains high [6]