难有高增长，或有超预期：消费会成为2026年宏观热点吗？

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The market outlook for 2026 is generally positive, supported by factors such as ample funding (500 billion in revitalized funds and 500 billion in policy financial tools) and a relatively stable US-China trade relationship[5] - Consumption growth is expected to be a key focus, despite differing opinions on its potential, with some believing it will remain low while others anticipate unexpected improvements[5] Group 2: Consumption Trends - Consumption structure is shifting towards "above limit" categories, with growth in lower limit categories stagnating around 0% for an extended period[8] - The luxury goods sector has shown signs of recovery, driven by marketing innovations and efforts to expand customer bases, rather than solely by consumer income or willingness[16] - The withdrawal of some foreign brands from China reflects a shift in market dynamics, indicating that local brands are better aligned with consumer preferences[17] Group 3: Regional Consumption Characteristics - There is no clear regional pattern in consumption growth; various regions exhibit unique strengths influenced by local policies and market conditions[19] - The logistics cost reduction and sensitivity to policy benefits in central and western regions suggest greater potential for growth in these areas[18] Group 4: Future Consumption Spending - Consumer spending is expected to outperform retail sales growth, with projections indicating a 5.1% increase in consumer spending, surpassing the 4.6% recorded in the third quarter[25] - Policy measures, such as minimum wage increases and support for rural pensions, are anticipated to enhance consumer spending capacity[25]