2026年煤炭行业投资策略：新周期：长短结合，进退皆宜

Group 1 - The report highlights the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal industry, driven by supply-demand improvements and price stabilization [3][5][10] - Coal prices showed a significant decline in the first half of 2025 but began to recover in June, with the average price for thermal coal (Q5500) at 695 CNY/ton, down 19% year-on-year, and coking coal at 1497 CNY/ton, down 28% year-on-year [4][5] - The report anticipates a sustainable improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a potential reduction in domestic coal supply exceeding 100 million tons due to the exit of pre-approved production capacity [5][49] Group 2 - The demand for coal is expected to rebound, particularly in the electricity sector, with a projected growth in coal consumption if electricity generation increases by over 3% in 2026 [7][9] - The chemical sector is also expected to maintain strong coal consumption growth, supported by China's strategic focus on coal chemical development [9] - The steel industry is projected to see increased coal demand due to government initiatives aimed at stabilizing growth, with an average annual increase of around 4% in value added expected from 2025 to 2026 [9] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with high dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua Energy and Zhongmei Energy, which are expected to benefit from the new coal cycle [11] - Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Huayang Co. are highlighted for their potential due to their own capacity growth and significant profit elasticity [11] - The report suggests that companies in a turnaround situation, particularly in the coking coal sector, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy and Pingmei Shenma Energy, are likely to benefit from improved profitability [11]