Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume and open interest contracted, and the roll - over was almost completed. With an upcoming major meeting, market sentiment improved, supporting steel prices. However, the rebar fundamentals were weakly stable under the situation of weak supply and demand. Steel prices were prone to pressure in the off - season. In the short term, steel prices would fluctuate and stabilize under the influence of optimistic sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5][40]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.30%. The trading volume and open interest contracted, and the roll - over was almost completed. Thanks to the improved market sentiment, the hot - rolled coil futures price rose, but the supply pressure remained, demand weakened, and the fundamentals did not improve. The upward driving force was not strong, and it was expected to continue the fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5][40]. - Iron ore: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.50%. The trading volume and open interest contracted, and the roll - over was in progress. The market sentiment was positive, and previous positive factors remained, supporting the ore price. However, iron ore demand was weakening while supply remained high, and the fundamentals did not improve. The upward driving force was questionable, and it was expected to maintain a high - level fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to steel performance [5][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Heavy - truck market: In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 46% and a month - on - month decrease of about 6%. From April to November, it achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42%. The cumulative sales from January to November exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [7]. - Housing prices: In November 2025, the average price of new homes in 100 Chinese cities was 17,036 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 2.68%. The average price of second - hand homes was 13,143 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.95% [8]. - Anti - dumping: In November 2025, there were 8 cases of foreign anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products, involving cold - rolled stainless steel, hot - rolled steel plates, stainless - steel welded pipes, H - beams, wire rods, etc. [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Steel products: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,220 yuan, and 3,331 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,310 yuan, 3,240 yuan, and 3,335 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,990 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference was 40 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,190 yuan [10]. - Iron ore: The price of 61.5% PB fines at Shandong ports was 800 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 807 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 11.94 yuan, and from Brazil was 25.19 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.91 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 107.35 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,133 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume was 504,172 lots, a decrease of 298,245 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 780,154 lots, a decrease of 102,422 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,325 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.30%. The trading volume was 249,589 lots, a decrease of 147,549 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 630,397 lots, a decrease of 74,189 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 800.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.50%. The trading volume was 143,855 lots, a decrease of 95,376 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 358,611 lots, a decrease of 18,063 lots [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: Charts showed the weekly changes and total inventory (mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 - 2025 [16][17][19] - Iron ore inventory: Charts presented the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including seasonal changes and inventory changes from 2021 - 2025 [21][22][28] - Steel mill production: Charts displayed the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and electric - furnace operating rate of steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [31][33][34] 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand weakened. Rebar weekly output decreased by 1.88 tons, but the profit of short - process steel mills improved, and the sustainability of production cuts needed to be monitored. Demand also weakened, and it was expected to decline seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the short term, steel prices would fluctuate and stabilize [40]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern was weak, and inventory reduction was limited. The weekly output increased by 3.00 tons, and the inventory pressure was high. Demand weakened, and the demand resilience was likely to decline. The upward driving force was not strong, and it was expected to continue fluctuating [40]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern remained weak. Ore demand continued to decline, while supply remained high. The upward driving force was questionable, and it was expected to maintain a high - level fluctuating trend [41].
钢材&铁矿石日报：预期现实博弈，钢矿震荡运行-20251202
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-12-02 13:00