首轮提降落地，焦炭低位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, on December 1st, the first round of price cut was implemented. The FOB price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port dropped by 50 yuan to 1,620 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price was 1,450 yuan/ton. There is still an expectation of further price cuts in the market. In terms of supply and demand, the latest data from Steel Union shows that the daily average coke output was 110.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.19 million tons; the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6 million tons, and the profitability rate of steel mills dropped to 35.06%, with large - scale losses in steel mills and pressure on the demand side remaining. Overall, there is still uncertainty in the coking coal supply in December, and there is some resistance to further decline in coke futures. The main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the subsequent focus lies on the actual production situation of coal mines [6][35]. - For coking coal, there is no obvious difference in the demand side, and the supply side is the core factor leading the market trend. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply during the heating season, reducing the market's expectation of a new round of anti - involution measures in the coal industry during the peak winter period. In addition, the recent coking coal output was not affected by the central safety production annual assessment and inspection, and the import volume accelerated, weakening the supply - side logic that previously supported the upward trend of coal prices. The market sentiment gradually faded, and coking coal futures have continued to correct since November. However, considering the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expectation of coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, there is some resistance to further decline in coking coal futures. The main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range, and the subsequent focus lies on the coal mine production situation [6][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In November 2025, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 Chinese cities was 17,036 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 2.68%. The average price of second - hand residential buildings was 13,143 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. High - end improvement projects in core cities drove up the price of new residential buildings, while the second - hand housing market faced downward pressure due to high listing volume and weak expectations [8]. - On December 2nd, the online auction price of coking coal in Changzhi Qinyuan market dropped. The starting price of low - sulfur lean primary coking coal was 1,430 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 1,444 yuan/ton, and 40,000 tons were traded, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared with November 28th and a cumulative decrease of 158 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The FOB price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.14%, and a decrease of 9.50% compared with the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,450 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month and year - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 10.49%, and a decrease of 13.69% compared with the same period [13]. - The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.25%, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%, and a decrease of 9.77% compared with the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month and year - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 5.37%, and a decrease of 3.09% compared with the same period. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,710 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month and year - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%, and an increase of 1.18% compared with the same period [13]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke contract was 1,629.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.45%. The highest price was 1,629.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,606 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 14,257, a decrease of 11,760, and the open interest was 30,635, a decrease of 1,966 [14]. - The closing price of the active coking coal contract was 1,096.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.86%. The highest price was 1,103.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,085 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 369,820, a decrease of 222,199, and the open interest was 397,617, a decrease of 25,719 [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - Charts related to coke inventory include the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory [15][16][20]. - Charts related to coking coal inventory include the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants [21][24][31]. - Other charts include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [28][30][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal market outlook is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current price situation, supply - demand relationship, and the key role of coal mine production in the future market trend [35][36].