银河期货航运日报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is continuously speculating on the implementation expectations of price increases in the second half of December and January, and the EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation [5]. - It is expected that the trading logics of the December and February contracts will diverge. The December contract follows the price in the second half of December, while the February contract focuses on the expected price increase and its implementation in January. The spread between the two contracts is uncertain, and the improvement in cargo volume needs to be tracked [6]. - The second - stage peace talks are expected to be tortuous. It is difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, but the probability of resumption after the Spring Festival may gradually increase [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On December 2, EC2512 closed at 1,633.6 points, down 0.19% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line on November 28 was reported at $1,404/TEU, up 2.7% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported after Monday's market close was 1,483.65 points, down 9.5% month - on - month, slightly lower than market expectations [5]. - Logic Analysis: - Spot Market: MSK released a quote of $2,400 for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in week 51, up $200 from last week. Some shipping companies have announced price increases for the second half of December, with online quotes ranging from $2,800 to $3,500 [6]. - Fundamentals: The demand for shipping from December to January is expected to gradually improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in December is 283,200 TEU, and the weekly average capacities in January and February 2026 are 298,800 TEU and 280,500 TEU respectively [6]. - Geopolitical Factors: The second - stage peace talks are expected to be difficult, and it is hard to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival. The number of return ships passing through the Suez Canal is expected to gradually increase, and the probability of resumption after the Spring Festival may rise [6]. - Trading Strategies: - Single - side Trading: Hold long positions in EC2602 and pay attention to the rhythm of shipping companies' price increases and cargo volume improvement [7]. - Arbitrage: Consider partial profit - taking on the 2 - 4 positive spread [8]. 3.1.2 Industry News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the market expectation of 49, and it has been in the contraction range for nine consecutive months [10]. - HMM, South Korea's largest liner company, signed a shipbuilding order worth approximately $1.445 billion to build 8 dual - fuel container ships of 13,400 TEU, which are expected to be delivered in the first half of 2029 [10]. 3.2 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures showing the trends of various shipping indices and container freight rates, such as SCFIS European Line Index, SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [12][15][17].