银河期货油脂日报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil market lacks clear drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long - at - low and high - throw - low - suck range operations. Do not rush to go long on palm oil [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8288 with no change. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8558, 8578, and 8448 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 290 (-10), 270 (0), and 160 (-10) [2]. - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8720, up 68. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8670, 8750, and 8830 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -50 (0), 30 (-50), and 110 (0) [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9745, down 25. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10025, 10295, etc. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 280 (-20), etc., and 550 (0) [2]. - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 192, down 10. For palm oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was -22, up 24. For rapeseed oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 264, down 22 [2]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: - In the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was -432, down 68; the OI - Y spread was 1457, down 25; the OI - P spread was 1025, down 93; the oil - meal ratio was 2.72, down 0.01 [2]. - Import Profits: - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a disk profit of -153, with a CNF price of 1045 for the 1 - month ship - period. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was -925, with an FOB price of 1080 for the 1 - month ship - period [2]. - Weekly Commercial Inventories: - In the 48th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 117.9 million tons (last week: 118.0 million tons, same period last year: 98.2 million tons); palm oil inventory was 65.4 million tons (last week: 66.7 million tons, same period last year: 51.7 million tons); rapeseed oil inventory was 36.8 million tons (last week: 38.5 million tons, same period last year: 45.0 million tons) [2]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - International Market: From January to October 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel production was 11.613 billion liters, consumption was 11.947 billion liters, and exports were zero [4]. - Domestic Market: - Palm Oil: As of November 28, 2025 (the 48th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week. It is currently at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around -200. The basis is stable with a downward trend. There is no clear short - term driver, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Soybean Oil: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2008 million tons, with an operating rate of 60.54%, a decrease from the previous week. As of November 28, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 117.88 million tons, a 0.09% decrease from last week. It is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the inventory inflection point has been reached. The domestic demand is average, and the inventory may slightly decrease. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and one can consider lightly going long on dips [4][5]. - Rapeseed Oil: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal main oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 36.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of history but continuously de - stocking. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around -1000. The market has a sentiment of holding back sales. It is expected that the coastal de - stocking trend will continue. One can consider high - throw - low - suck operations [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see or conduct short - term long - at - low and high - throw - low - suck range operations. Do not rush to go long on palm oil [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Wait and see [9]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil; the 01 spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, etc. [12][14]