供应方面仍有影响，盘面阶段性反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side still has an impact, and the futures market has staged a rebound [1]. - The overall situation of the international soybean market remains relatively stable, and price changes are expected to be limited. In the medium to long - term, there is still price pressure on domestic soybean meal. Rapeseed meal is expected to face significant supply - side pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - Futures and Spot Prices: For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3045, 2848, and 2957 respectively, with price increases of 6, 13, and 10. For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2423, 2413, and 2479 respectively, with price increases of 0, 10, and 11. The spot basis and price differences of various varieties and regions are also presented [3]. - Monthly Spreads: The 15 - spread, 59 - spread, and 91 - spread of soybean meal are 197, - 109, and - 88 respectively, with changes of - 7, 3, and 4. The 15 - spread, 59 - spread, and 91 - spread of rapeseed meal are 10, - 66, and 56 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 1, and 11 [3]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The current spreads of soybean - rapeseed 01 and 09 are 622 and 478 respectively, and the oil - meal ratio of 01 is 2.722 [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The monthly supply - demand report is generally bullish, but the market has already fully reflected the positive factors. The U.S. soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future prices will be more affected by changes in soybean exports and crushing. South American supply - side impacts are increasing, with Brazil's new crop sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. - Domestic Market: The domestic spot market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand. The oil refinery's operating rate continues to increase, with sufficient market supply and increasing提货量. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.2008 million tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean inventory was 7.3396 million tons, an increase of 189,700 tons (2.65%) from the previous week and 2.3661 million tons (47.57%) compared to the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, an increase of 51,700 tons (4.49%) from the previous week and 368,700 tons (44.18%) compared to the same period last year. The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, the refinery's operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply remains low, and the supply pressure still exists [5]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - U.S. Soybeans: There are limited bullish factors for U.S. soybeans recently, and the market is mainly in a volatile state. If exports do not improve significantly in the future, it is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state [7]. - Brazilian Soybeans: The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the market, and due to the tightening of the South American market, price support is still relatively strong [7]. - Domestic Soybean Meal: The current domestic soybean meal market has relatively loose supply and demand, which exerts pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures market. In the medium to long - term, price pressure still exists [7]. - Rapeseed Meal: Affected by rumors about Australian rapeseed, the rapeseed meal futures market has declined. The overall market demand is average, and it is expected that the supply - side pressure will still be significant [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Single - sided Trading: Continue to make small - scale long positions [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - Options: Implement a strategy of selling wide - straddles [8].