中国商品期货跨境套利周报-20251202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver and Zinc are rated as "Potential", while Copper is rated as "On hold" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly analysis of cross - border arbitrage opportunities in China's commodity futures market, covering various commodities such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, and agriculturals. It gives last week's performance, this week's recommendations, and key influencing factors for each commodity [4][12][14] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals 1.1 Gold - Last week: The price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets, as well as the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread, fluctuated [14] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the price is rising moderately and there is a lack of short - term drivers for the spread [14] 1.2 Silver - Last week: The domestic - foreign silver price spread continued to decline, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread also fluctuated and declined [25] - This week: Recommendation is to long COMEX and short SHFE as the London silver squeeze risk drives price increase and the external silver price is strongly supported [20][25] 2. Non - Ferrous Metals 2.1 Copper - Last week: LME inventory slightly increased, and the copper import window remained in a loss state [26] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [26] 2.2 Aluminum - Last week: Domestic aluminum price correction drove trading volume recovery, inventory declined but at a slower rate, and the LME inventory continued to decrease. The short - term exchange ratio was range - bound [31] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [31] 2.3 Zinc - Last week: The domestic zinc ingot export window opened, domestic inventory decreased, and LME inventory rose rapidly but remained at a low level [37] - This week: Recommendation is to short LME zinc and long SHFE zinc in a rolling manner [37] 2.4 Lead - Last week: Inventories rose slightly as smelter inventory was low, and canceled warrants for LME surged again during destocking [43] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [43] 2.5 Nickel - Last week: The import window was closed, with numerical fluctuations, and the extreme price difference situation improved significantly [49] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [49] 2.6 Tin - Last week: The domestic - foreign tin price ratio dropped, the spot tin import window was closed, and the import loss was 16,784 yuan/ton with no obvious spread driver [52] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [52] 3. Ferrous Metals 3.1 Iron Ore - Last week: The iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers [56] - This week: Suggestion is to hold [56] 4. Energy 4.1 Crude Oil - Last week: The SC - Brent spread edged higher [63] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the Middle - East crude oil spot is stable, freight is highly volatile, and Russian oil supply is uncertain [62] 5. Agriculturals 5.1 Soybean - Last week: Import crushing margins were at the bottom and oscillating, and Sino - US trade relations improved [68] - This week: Recommendation is to long the external market and short the domestic market [68] 5.2 Sugar - Last week: Import crushing margins increased, and the external market is expected to be stronger than the domestic market in the medium - to - long term [72] - This week: Suggestion is to hold [72] 5.3 Natural Rubber - Last week: There was little change, and the spread was in the non - arbitrage range. Supply is expected to increase, but demand is weak [75] - This week: Suggestion is to hold [75] 6. Overseas Arbitrage 6.1 COMEX - LME Copper - Last week: The market absorbed the Fed's hawkish stance in December. With the upcoming Fed chair pick and stronger gold/silver prices, the COMEX - LME copper spread may rise. The expected US copper tariff limits the spread's downside [81] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for COMEX - LME copper arbitrage [81] 6.2 Brent - Dubai EFS - Last week: Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS rebounded [87] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the Middle - East crude oil spot discount is oscillating and freight is highly volatile [86] 6.3 WTI - Brent - Last week: The WTI - Brent spread fluctuated [93] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the US refinery operating rate is stabilizing and rising, refined oil inventory is low, and shale oil production is expected to be stable [92] 6.4 Natural Gas (TFU - HH) - Last week: The price gap continued to decline. Cold wave and export growth expectations pushed up US gas prices, while LNG supply increase pressured European gas prices [96] - This week: Suggestion is to hold. Be cautious about shorting as the spread is approaching the reasonable long - term contract spread [96]