金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20251202

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the market is expected to follow the cost - end fluctuations in the short term, with supply reduction and potential restarts of previously shut - down capacities, and downstream polyester开工 to seasonally weaken. For MEG, it may oscillate at a low level under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - 主力合约: On December 2nd, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.34%, and the basis weakened to - 32 yuan/ton [2] - Fundamentals: The market price of PTA in East China today was 4720 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end crude oil price rose, OPEC + maintained the resolution to suspend production increase in Q1, 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous week [3] - 主力动向: Long - position main players reduced their positions [3] - 预期: Recently, PTA supply has decreased significantly. Previously shut - down capacities will gradually restart, leading to a phased de - stocking of PTA. India's BIS cancellation is a boost to exports. The downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally weaken. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production by plants under the repair of processing fees [3] MEG - 主力合约: On December 2nd, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.41%, and the basis weakened by - 6 yuan/ton [4] - Fundamentals: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today was 3876 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end crude oil price increased, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly inventory of MEG ports in East China totaled 70.8 tons, an increase of 7.5 tons compared to the previous week [4] - 主力动向: There was a divergence among long and short main players [4] - 预期: Ethylene glycol has been accumulating inventory in recent weeks, and the expectation has not changed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production and conduct maintenance, alleviating the supply - side pressure of ethylene glycol. A 3.3 - million - ton plant in Iran has recently shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. The downstream polyester开工 remains stable but has entered the consumption off - season [4]