Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel" [1] Report Date - December 2, 2025 [3] 1. Nickel Investment Strategy - Strategy: Wait and see [5][92] - Operating range: 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][92] - Logic: Supply side has flat nickel ore prices, increased arrivals last week, and port de - stocking; domestic and Indonesian iron - plant production decreased with nickel - iron inventory accumulation, and domestic refined nickel production decreased with narrowing import losses. Demand side shows decreased production of ternary materials and precursors, decreased stainless - steel plant production, and stable alloy electroplating demand. Inventory side indicates increased pure - nickel social inventory and decreased bonded - area inventory last week. Overall, the fundamentals are loose with high inventory pressure, but the valuation is low, and with repeated interest - rate cut expectations, a weak recovery of nickel prices is expected after the previous decline [5][92] 2. Stainless Steel Investment Strategy - Strategy: Sell on rallies [6][118] - Operating range: 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][118] - Logic: Fundamentally, stainless - steel plant production is decreasing, and terminal demand is weak. Cost - side support is continuously weakening with falling nickel - pig iron prices and flat high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Inventory shows total inventory accumulation and 300 - series inventory accumulation. Overall, weak demand, a loose fundamental pattern, and continuous cost weakening are expected to lead to low - level oscillations of stainless - steel prices [6][118] 3. Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated upward with a weekly increase of 1.99%, trading volume reaching 624,700 lots (+58,900), and open interest reaching 127,300 lots (-33,400). LME nickel increased by 2.53% weekly, with trading volume at 34,400 lots (-8,700) [10] - The basis premium was 1,900 yuan/ton [12] 4. Nickel Supply Side 4.1 Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores were flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was flat [18] - In October, the Philippines' nickel - ore export volume rebounded, and China's nickel - ore import volume reached 4.68 million tons, a 23.4% month - on - month decrease and an 11.0% year - on - year increase [23] - Last week, the nickel - ore arrival volume increased by 122,900 tons week - on - week, and the nickel - ore port inventory decreased by 30,000 wet tons [25] 4.2 Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 7.5 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron was flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium of nickel pig iron to scrap stainless steel narrowed [31] - In October, China's nickel - iron import volume was 905,000 tons, a 16.6% month - on - month decrease and a 31.0% year - on - year increase. The import volume is expected to remain stable in November [35] - BF profit shrank with a decrease in the operating rate, and RKEF losses widened with a decrease in the operating rate [39] - In December, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic and Indonesian nickel pig iron decreased [42] - Nickel - iron inventory accumulated [44] 4.3 Electrolytic Nickel - In December, the operating rate of refined nickel increased, and production recovered [48] - The import loss of electrolytic nickel narrowed [52] - In October, the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [56] 5. Nickel Demand Side 5.1 Stainless Steel - In December, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel decreased [61][109] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.4% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year, while imports increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 21.6% year - on - year. Exports and imports are expected to decline in November [65][110] 5.2 New Energy - The price of pure nickel increased, the price of nickel sulfate decreased, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel narrowed. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [70] - In December, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate decreased, with month - on - month decreases of 7.8%, 6.7%, and 7.1% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 4.3%, 37.3%, and 19.7% respectively [75][77] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [83] 6. Nickel Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased, and LME nickel inventory increased [84] - Last week, Shanghai bonded - area pure - nickel inventory decreased by 200 tons, and the six - region total social inventory increased by 3,090 tons [88] 7. Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel by purchasing high - grade nickel matte and MHP externally decreased, while the cost of producing electrolytic nickel by purchasing nickel sulfate externally increased. MHP integrated production of electrolytic nickel has a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [91] 8. Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless - steel futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly increase of 0.04%, and the basis shrank to 925 yuan/ton. Trading volume reached 699,400 lots (+82,800), and open interest reached 117,400 lots (-53,800) [95] 9. Stainless Steel Cost and Profit - The price of high - nickel pig iron fell, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was flat, with weakening cost - side support [98] - The profit of 200 - series stainless steel decreased, the loss of 300 - series stainless steel decreased, and the profit of 400 - series stainless steel increased [103] 10. Stainless Steel Fundamentals - In December, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel decreased [61][109] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.4% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year, while imports increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 21.6% year - on - year. Exports and imports are expected to decline in November [65][110] 11. Stainless Steel Inventory Side - Domestic stainless - steel social inventory increased. 200 - series and 300 - series inventory increased, while 400 - series inventory decreased [116]
下跌后的弱修复：有色金属周报——镍与不锈钢-20251202
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-12-02 13:24