国内供应压力部分缓解

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ethylene glycol (MEG) market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Although the price has stopped falling and repaired this week due to cost support, the subsequent new device production expectations still exist, and the supply side still has potential incremental space. The downstream polyester has entered the off - season, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak. It is expected that MEG will operate in the range of 3750 - 3950 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to keep watching [6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Main Viewpoints - This week, MEG stopped falling and repaired mainly due to cost support. The supply side has potential incremental space, and the downstream polyester has entered the off - season with a slight decline in the start - up rate. The coal - based start - up rate has rebounded, and the price repair is limited under the weak supply and demand situation. Next week, it is expected that the oil price will fluctuate narrowly, and the coal price will be adjusted weakly. In terms of supply, pay attention to the maintenance of Shenghong Refining and Fude Energy in early December, and the Zheng Dakai device will restart later. The polyester load has strong phased support, and there is an expectation of new device start - up. The port inventory is expected to remain at a high level [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Situation - Futures: This week, the trading volume was 1.06 million lots, and the open interest was 283,400 lots (- 69,900 lots). The closing price of the MEG main contract on December 1 was 3882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared with November 24, with a change of - 0.05%. The settlement price was 3893 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton compared with November 24, with a change of 1.01% [13][15]. - Spot: The high - end transaction price in the domestic spot market was 3952 yuan/ton (November 25), and the low - end was 3841 yuan/ton (November 24). The weekly price data from November 23 - 29 showed that the price in Fujian was 4029 yuan/ton (+ 18), in Zhangjiagang was 3897.5 yuan/ton (- 14.5), and in Dongguan was 4026 yuan/ton (+ 15). The foreign - exchange price was 461.2 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The average basis this week was 40 yuan/ton, compared with 62.40 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign prices of MEG remained inverted, with an overall level of 80 - 100 US dollars/ton [17]. 3.3 MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit Situation - Device Start - up Rate: The coal - based start - up rate rebounded to 67.53% from November 25 - December 1 (67.63% from November 18 - 24). The petroleum - based start - up rate was 75.55%, the coal - based start - up rate was 55.10%, and the methanol - based start - up rate was 62.43%. This week, the main device changes included the maintenance of Zhonghua Quanzhou device, the restart of Shenghong, Rongxin, and Hongsifang devices, and the slight adjustment of the load of Yuandonglian, Fude, and Zhongke devices [21][24][26]. - Device Operation Details: Detailed operation information of non - coal - based and coal - based MEG devices of various enterprises was provided, including the start - up, shutdown, and load adjustment of each device [29][30][31]. - Production Profit: The profit of MTO method was - 1545.89 yuan/ton, compared with - 1419.68 yuan/ton in the previous period; the coal - based profit was - 265.48 yuan/ton, compared with - 283.18 yuan/ton in the previous period; the ethylene - based profit was - 116.28 US dollars/ton, compared with - 114.40 US dollars/ton in the previous period [35]. - Inventory: As of November 27, the MEG port inventory was 670,500 tons, an increase of 61,500 tons compared with the previous period, with a month - on - month change of 9.29%. Among them, Zhangjiagang had 309,500 tons (an increase of 27,500 tons), Jiangyin had 50,000 tons (unchanged), Taicang had 151,000 tons (an increase of 14,000 tons), Ningbo had 130,000 tons (an increase of 20,000 tons), and Shanghai and Changshu had 30,000 tons (unchanged) [39]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Cost: Although the international crude oil futures net rose about 1% this week, the market's expectation of increased global supply still suppressed the oil price [46]. - Supply: The start - up load of new production capacity increased, and the subsequent market supply will grow moderately [48]. - Demand: The overall demand was not strong, which was negative for polyester product prices. The start - up rate of polyester factories was 89.19%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 71.73%. The market prices of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber and polyester bottle chips declined to varying degrees. The domestic weaving market demand weakened significantly, and the foreign trade orders were relatively smooth. The polyester production and sales were about 60% this week, and the downstream mainly purchased on a sporadic and rigid - demand basis [50][51][59].