银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month contracts in April and May, long positions can be considered to be established at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Information - Price and Market Conditions: The average price in the main producing areas today is 3 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.22 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged. The national mainstream prices are mostly stable, with egg prices in major Beijing markets remaining stable. Egg prices in Northeast China, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Anhui are generally stable, with local price fluctuations. Egg prices continue to fluctuate and consolidate, and the sales are normal [4]. - In - production Laying Hen Inventory: In November, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises in November was about 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated in - production laying hen inventories in December 2025, January, February, and March 2026 are approximately 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5]. - Laying Hen Culling: In the week of November 27th, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 21.97 million, an increase of 8.7% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in that week was 489 days, a decrease of 3 days from the previous week [5]. - Egg Sales Volume: As of the week of November 21st, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7472 tons, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous week [6]. - Profit Situation: As of November 13th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.15 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week. On November 6th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 6.1 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.19 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - Inventory Situation: As of the week of November 21st, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. - Culled Chicken Price: Today, the national culled chicken price has decreased, with the average price in the main producing areas at 3.8 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. 3.2 Trading Logic The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month contracts in April and May, long positions can be considered to be established at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Single - side Trading: It is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. Long positions can be considered to be established in far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].