银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251202

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may experience a short - term pull - back due to concerns about liquidity tightening caused by Japan's potential interest rate hike, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Alumina prices are expected to be under continuous pressure. Aluminum prices are likely to be strong in the medium - term. Zinc prices may be affected by macro factors, and lead prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Nickel prices have limited upside potential due to weak demand. Stainless steel prices are recommended for short - side allocation. Tin prices will maintain high - level volatility. Industrial silicon prices have limited downside space in the short - term. Polysilicon prices are recommended to hold short positions. Lithium carbonate prices may face callback pressure in the medium - term [3][10][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Review: The main contract 2601 of copper futures closed at 88,920 yuan/ton, up 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 1,209 lots to 587,000 lots. The spot copper price declined, and the supply in the market was tight. The Shanghai spot premium rose, while the North China consumption was weak, and the spot premium and discount weakened [1] - Important Information: The Bank of Japan governor strongly hinted at a December interest rate hike. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI index was 48.2, lower than expected. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper concentrate production capacity load by more than 10% in 2026 [1] - Logic Analysis: Concerns about global liquidity tightening were triggered by the Bank of Japan's hawkish remarks. The US ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. The copper supply in 2026 remains tight, and the CSPT group plans to cut production. The Comex copper inventory is increasing, and the LME's B - structure is expanding. The copper price may pull back in the short - term but will rise in the long - term [3] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, consider partially taking profits on long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton and rebuying after the correction. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [4][5][6] Alumina - Related Information: An electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan purchased 0.2 million tons of spot alumina on December 1. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are under maintenance. Four alumina new - construction projects in Guangxi are in different progress stages [8][9] - Logic Analysis: After the alumina price decline, there was maintenance in the northern market, but it did not affect the monthly output. Near the end - of - year long - term contract negotiation period, the alumina price is expected to be under pressure [10] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, the alumina price will oscillate weakly. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [11][12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - Related Information: The Bank of Japan governor's statement intensified market speculation about a December policy shift. The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingot spot was 591,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. A 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was put into production [15] - Trading Logic: The Fed's dovish remarks and US economic data increased the market's attention to non - interest - bearing assets. Aluminum has a supply gap globally, and its fundamentals are supported. In the short - term, new projects are put into production as scheduled, and domestic aluminum consumption is resilient [16] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, the aluminum price will be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips in the medium - term. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Related Information: The Bank of Japan governor signaled a possible interest rate hike. In October 2025, China's imports and exports of unforged aluminum alloy and waste aluminum had certain volumes, and the warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy increased [18][21][22] - Trading Logic: The market's concern about the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut in December was alleviated, but there are concerns about Japan's interest rate hike. The waste aluminum resources are in short supply, and the demand is differentiated [23] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it will oscillate strongly along with the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [24] Zinc - Market Review: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2601 rose 1% to 22,745 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 4,053 lots. In the spot market, the downstream was hesitant to buy due to high prices, but the trading among traders was active [26] - Related Information: As of December 1, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots decreased. A zinc - lead project in Algeria is expected to start production as planned [27] - Logic Analysis: In December, domestic northern mines will enter seasonal shutdown, and the refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The zinc concentrate import is in a loss state. The zinc price may be affected by macro factors [28] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, continue to hold the remaining profitable long positions and be vigilant against macro factors. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [32] Lead - Market Review: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2601 rose 0.73% to 17,210 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index increased by 2,060 lots. In the spot market, the lead price increased slightly, and the downstream maintained rigid demand [34] - Related Information: The new national standard for electric bicycles was implemented on December 1. The procurement sentiment of downstream lead - acid battery factories was average, and the social inventory of lead ingots decreased [35] - Logic Analysis: The cost of recycled lead smelting increased, and the smelters were reluctant to sell. The production of primary lead was affected by maintenance, and the inventory decreased. The lead price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term [36] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, the Shanghai lead price may fluctuate strongly in the range. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37] Nickel - Market Review: The main contract NI2601 of Shanghai nickel rose 570 to 118,050 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 1,877 lots. The spot premiums of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed [39] - Important Information: Indonesian companies support the cooperation between Tsingshan and UNIDO. GreenMei's nickel project in Indonesia is operating normally. In November 2025, the domestic ternary material production decreased slightly, and the production is expected to decline further in December [40] - Logic Analysis: The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the supply is still tilted towards nickel sulfate. The supply - demand is loose, and the price has limited upside potential [42] - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy was mentioned in the text Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main contract SS201 of stainless steel rose 70 to 12,465 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 5,518 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [44] - Important Information: POSCO maintained the stainless steel price in December. A stainless steel project in Jieyang was in the environmental impact assessment stage. Indonesia's nickel product exports to China accounted for a large proportion [45] - Logic Analysis: The terminal demand in December is not optimistic, and the domestic crude steel production plan decreased significantly. The short - term price rebound lacks a solid foundation, and the price is still restricted by inventory [46] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, adopt a short - side allocation. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [46] Tin - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2601 closed at 306,980 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton or 0.24%. The spot price of tin decreased, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [52] - Related Information: The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. In October 2025, China's tin ore imports increased month - on - month [52][53] - Logic Analysis: False news once pushed up the tin price. The domestic tin concentrate imports increased in October, but the processing fee remained low. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was in the off - season [54] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it will maintain high - level volatility after a short - term pull - back. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [55][56] Industrial Silicon - Important Information: The environmental protection improvement project of Luxi Chemical's silicone device passed the acceptance monitoring [57] - Logic Analysis: In December, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan may decrease, while large enterprises in the northwest will increase production. The demand from the silicone and polysilicon industries has certain changes, and the price has limited downside space in the short - term [58] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - sell on rallies in the short - term. If the inventory accumulates significantly, the price may decline further [58] Polysilicon - Important Information: On December 1, the clearing results of Liaoning Power Grid's mechanism electricity price bidding were announced [60] - Logic Analysis: The silicon wafer and battery market are under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [61] - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions for single - side trading. For arbitrage, conduct a long - short spread operation between Si2601 and Si2602. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [62] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate decreased by 700 to 96,560 yuan/ton, and the position and warehouse receipts increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [66] - Important Information: The lithium battery recycling industry has improved. Tianhua New Energy plans to increase lithium salt production capacity. In November 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased, and it is expected to continue to reduce inventory in December [67] - Logic Analysis: There are differences in the demand side's production plan in December. The supply is expected to increase, and the price may face callback pressure in the medium - term [68] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, buy after a sufficient long - term pull - back. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2605 contract [69][70]