银河期货白糖日报-20251202

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily sugar report dated December 2, 2025, prepared by the Agricultural Products Research Institute of Galaxy Futures [2][3] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09 closed at 5,328, down 17 (-0.32%), with a trading volume of 6,072 (up 4,346) and an open interest of 21,363 (up 1,386) - SR01 closed at 5,382, down 23 (-0.43%), with a trading volume of 163,973 (up 30,236) and an open interest of 338,486 (down 12,087) - SR05 closed at 5,316, down 17 (-0.32%), with a trading volume of 58,088 (up 25,109) and an open interest of 221,789 (up 6,405) [3] Spot Market - The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou was 5,565, down 20; in Kunming, 5,415, down 10; in Wuhan, 5,850, unchanged; in Nanning, 5,510, down 20; in Rizhao, 5,750, unchanged; and in Xi'an, 6,060, down 20 [3] Monthly Spread - The SR05 - SR01 spread was -66, up 6; the SR09 - SR05 spread was 12, unchanged; and the SR09 - SR01 spread was -54, up 6 [3] Import Profit - For Brazilian imports, the ICE主力 was 14.74, the quota - within price was 4,021, the out - of - quota price was 5,107, with a spread of 458 against Liuzhou, 643 against Rizhao, and 275 against the futures market - For Thai imports, the ICE主力 was 14.74, the quota - within price was 4,067, the out - of - quota price was 5,168, with a spread of 397 against Liuzhou, 582 against Rizhao, and 214 against the futures market [3] Group 3: Important Information Brazil - In the first half of November 2025, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, up 235,200 tons (14.34%) year - on - year; sugar production was 983,000 tons, up 79,000 tons (8.69%) year - on - year - From the start of the 2025/26 season to the first half of November, the cumulative crushing volume was 576.253 million tons, down 7.341 million tons (-1.26%) year - on - year; cumulative sugar production was 39.179 million tons, up 800,000 tons (2.09%) year - on - year [5] India - As of November 30, 2025, in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in India was 48.6 million tons, up 15.2 million tons (45.5%) year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, up 1.375 million tons (49.81%) year - on - year [6][8] China (Guangxi) - On November 30, 2025, six sugar mills in Guangxi started crushing. In Chongzuo, the sugarcane planting area in 2025 was 4.1 million mu, and the estimated sugarcane crushing volume in the new season will be 18.27 million tons, up 960,000 tons from the previous season [8] Group 4: Market Analysis International Market - Brazilian sugarcane is entering the harvest stage, and the sugar - making ratio has decreased. The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and international sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out, with short - term prices expected to be slightly stronger [9] Domestic Market - Domestic sugar mills are starting to crush, and the supply pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and high production costs, domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: Consider short - term long positions at low prices as the supply pressure from Brazil is easing, and domestic sugar prices have limited downside due to high production costs [10] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11] - Options: Sell put options at low prices [11] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes charts on Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly sugar inventories, cumulative sales - to - production ratios, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, sugar basis for different contract months, and price spreads between different sugar futures contracts [12][13][16]