东南亚消费行业10月跟踪报告：通胀温和且分化，消费需求结构性改善

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Southeast Asia consumer sector, with a focus on structural improvements in consumption demand and moderate inflation across the region [1][4]. Core Insights - The Southeast Asian consumer sector is experiencing a structural improvement in consumption demand, supported by moderate inflation and varying consumer confidence across different countries [1][4][22]. - Indonesia shows strong consumer confidence with a Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of 121.2, reflecting optimism in employment and income expectations [18]. - Thailand's consumer confidence has improved to 50.9, aided by government stimulus and better trade conditions, despite ongoing deflationary pressures [28][24]. - Vietnam's retail sales have shown robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% in October, indicating sustained demand expansion [41]. - Malaysia's consumer spending is recovering, with a GDP growth rate of 5.2% in Q3 2025, driven by domestic demand and investment [43]. Economic Data Summary - Indonesia's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 5.04%, supported by exports, consumption, and public spending [14]. - Thailand's GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 1.2%, primarily driven by consumption and tourism [22]. - Singapore's GDP growth reached 4.2% in Q3 2025, driven by manufacturing and services [30]. - Vietnam's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 8.23%, reflecting strong performance in industrial and service sectors [37]. - Malaysia's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 5.2%, indicating a recovery in economic activity [43]. Inflation and Consumer Price Index (CPI) Overview - Indonesia's CPI in October 2025 increased by 2.86%, with food and beverage prices being the main contributors [15]. - Thailand's CPI decreased by 0.76% in October 2025, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth [24]. - Singapore's CPI rose to 1.2% in October 2025, indicating a broad-based increase in price pressures [32]. - Vietnam's CPI in October 2025 was 3.25%, reflecting moderate inflation driven by food and service costs [38]. Retail Performance Summary - Indonesia's retail index showed a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in October 2025, indicating strong consumer demand [9]. - Thailand's retail performance has been mixed, with significant fluctuations in consumer spending [12]. - Malaysia's retail sales grew by 6.5% year-on-year in October 2025, reflecting a positive trend in consumer behavior [9]. - Vietnam's retail sales for the first ten months of 2025 increased by 9.3%, showcasing robust consumer activity [41].