资产配置日报：政策博弈与靴子落地-20251202

Market Overview - On December 2, the stock market experienced a decline, with the CSI All A Shares index falling by 0.64% and a trading volume of 1.61 trillion yuan, down 282.2 billion yuan from the previous day[1] - The Hong Kong market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.24% while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.37%[1] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 4.11 billion HKD, with Meituan, Xiaomi, and Alibaba receiving net inflows of 0.592 billion, 0.380 billion, and 0.357 billion HKD respectively, while Tencent experienced a net outflow of 0.381 billion HKD[1] Trading Sentiment - Market trading remains subdued, with the trading volume around 1.6 trillion yuan, marking a low since August[2] - Since November 14, there has been a significant contradiction between market volume and price, with the trading volume failing to exceed 2 trillion yuan or drop below 1.5 trillion yuan[2] - Investors are waiting for clearer market signals before making decisions, leading to a continuation of the current oscillating market state[2] Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent recovery in the market has been driven by a "technology narrative," but this narrative is losing strength, prompting some funds to shift focus towards consumption sectors in anticipation of policy outcomes from upcoming meetings[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a net bond purchase of 50 billion yuan in November, which was below market expectations, leading to a slight decline in long-term bond prices[4][6] - The PBOC's bond purchase strategy appears to be aimed at maintaining liquidity rather than signaling a tightening of monetary policy[5] Commodity Market Dynamics - In the commodity market, precious metals showed mixed performance, with silver rising by 2.46% while gold only slightly increased by 0.01%[7] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is weakening, with significant capital outflows observed, particularly in the new energy sector, where polysilicon saw a net outflow of 1.1 billion yuan[7][9] - The supply-demand dynamics for polysilicon remain weak, with production decreasing to 115,000 tons in November, but demand continues to lag, leading to inventory accumulation[9]