金信期货日刊-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - The pulp futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term and has the potential for a central upward shift in the long - term [3]. - The stock index futures are expected to fill the previous gap around 3930 after today's adjustment. It is recommended to treat it as a volatile market and focus on high - selling and low - buying [10]. - Gold is in a complex volatile process and is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down [15]. - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom with weak domestic demand support. It should be viewed with a wide - range volatile mindset and high - selling and low - buying [17]. - Glass showed a tendency to weaken after rising and falling today. It can be viewed as volatile and bearish [19]. - Methanol prices have risen by over 5% this week. Multiple factors support the market, and investors should seize long - position opportunities [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp - On December 2nd, the pulp main contract rose 2.62% to 5272 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of over 3%. In the short - term, the rise is due to capital games caused by insufficient deliverable goods rather than fundamental improvement. Currently, domestic port inventory is 217.2 tons, with high coniferous pulp inventory and weak demand. Although broad - leaf pulp supply is tight and prices are supported by external costs, overall supply - demand improvement is limited, and prices are unlikely to rise unilaterally. In the long - term, overseas new pulp production capacity will be limited in 2026, and there are plans for production cuts and conversions. European demand recovery may reduce imports to China, while domestic finished paper production capacity expansion will increase marginal pulp demand. The current pulp price is undervalued, and the price center is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to port de - stocking progress and the implementation effect of downstream finished paper price increases [3][5][6]. - As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 217.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.05% month - on - month decrease. The inventory trend showed a slight de - stocking, and Changshu Port showed an inventory accumulation trend. The futures market has been volatile recently [25]. Stock Index Futures - After today's adjustment, it is expected to fill the previous gap around 3930. It is recommended to treat it as a volatile market and focus on high - selling and low - buying [10]. Gold - Gold is in a complex volatile process and is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down [15]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply has further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of finding a bottom, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range volatile mindset and high - selling and low - buying [17][18]. Glass - It rose and then fell today, showing a tendency to weaken. It can be viewed as volatile and bearish. The daily melting volume has declined, and de - stocking started this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [19][20]. Methanol - This week, the price has risen by over 5%. Multiple factors support the market, including a sharp decline in coastal sample port inventory, supply disruptions due to concentrated gas restrictions and shutdowns of Iranian plants, and the linkage effect of active port trading sentiment. Investors should seize long - position opportunities [23].