现实预期博弈，盘?上涨乏

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [8] Core View of the Report - The macro - environment is warm with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, but the steel inventory is still high year - on - year, and demand faces weakening pressure, so the steel futures market has limited upward momentum. Iron ore is supported by winter storage expectations, coal - coke spot prices are weak due to demand pressure, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures prices [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Iron water production is decreasing, steel mill profitability is compressing, and there are still blast furnace maintenance plans. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate as the upward support is insufficient after the previous price rebound. Scrap steel arrivals are low, and its price is expected to oscillate as the cost - performance improves after the price drop [4]. 2. Carbon Element - Coke supply has slightly increased, and steel mill开工 is seasonally declining. There are 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price - cut expectations for coke, but the possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of cuts is low. The coke futures market is expected to follow coking coal. Coking coal fundamentals have slightly deteriorated, but the low valuation and winter storage expectations support the price. The near - month contract may oscillate, and the far - month contract is expected to be slightly stronger [5]. 3. Alloy - For manganese - silicon, the cost is relatively high, but the supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level. For ferrosilicon, the cost supports the price bottom, but the supply - demand is weak, and the price is also expected to run at a low level [5]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, if there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. For soda ash, the price is close to the cost with obvious bottom support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [5][8]. 5. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is average, steel mill profitability is decreasing, and demand is weakening. Although the macro - environment is warm, the upward space is limited due to the poor fundamentals [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate as the upward support is insufficient and the winter storage demand has not been released [10]. Scrap Steel - The arrivals are low, and the price is expected to oscillate as the cost - performance has improved and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported [11]. Coke - The supply has slightly increased, and the market is slightly loose. There are 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price - cut expectations, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [13]. Coking Coal - The spot price has a bottom support. The near - month contract may oscillate, and the far - month contract is expected to be slightly stronger [14]. Glass - If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15]. Soda Ash - The price is close to the cost with obvious bottom support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [17]. Manganese - Silicon - The cost is relatively high, but the supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level [18]. Ferrosilicon - The cost supports the price bottom, but the supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to run at a low level [20].