中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌互现，集运、纸浆等涨幅居前-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro - environment is still friendly to risk assets. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [5]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of Various Futures - Equity Index Futures: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4535.8, down 0.43% daily, up 0.67% weekly and monthly, down 1.78% quarterly, and up 15.68% this year. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2971.4, down 0.50% daily, up 0.28% weekly and monthly, down 0.59% quarterly, and up 10.96% this year. The CSI 500 futures closed at 6982.2, up 0.11% weekly and monthly, down 4.23% quarterly, and up 22.65% this year. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7239.6, down 0.652 daily, down 0.29% weekly and monthly, down 2.25% quarterly, and up 78.13% this year [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.388, down 0.02% daily, up 0.01% weekly and monthly, up 0.10% quarterly, and down 0.57% this year. The 5 - year treasury bond futures closed at 105.77, down 0.07% daily, up 0.02% weekly and monthly, up 0.24% quarterly, and down 0.72% this year. The 10 - year treasury bond futures closed at 107.98, down 0.06% daily, up 0.04% weekly and monthly, up 0.42% quarterly, and down 0.87% this year. The 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 113.89, down 0.42% daily, down 0.52% weekly and monthly, up 0.28% quarterly, and down 4.16% this year [3]. - Foreign Exchange: The US Dollar Index was at 99.4081, unchanged daily, down 0.03% weekly and monthly, up 1.62% quarterly, and down 8.35% this year. The EUR/USD was at 1.1609, with 0 pips daily change, 8 pips weekly and monthly change, - 125 pips quarterly change, and 1256 pips annual change. The USD/JPY was at 155.483, with 0 pips daily change, down 0.44% weekly and monthly, down 1.09% this year [3]. - Interest Rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.48, unchanged daily, down 2 bp weekly and monthly, up 3 bp quarterly, and down 27 bp this year. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.84, up 0.8 bp daily, up 0.3 bp weekly and monthly, down 1.6 bp quarterly, and up 0.2 bp this year. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.09, up 7 bp daily and weekly, down 0.02 bp quarterly, and down 46 bp this year [3]. - Shipping: The European container shipping line closed at 1534.2, up 2.79% daily, up 4.23% weekly and monthly, down 6.61% quarterly, and down 32.02% this year [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold closed at 958.42, down 0.50% daily, up 0.47% weekly and monthly, up 9.31% quarterly, and up 55.18% this year. Silver closed at 13423, up 1.09% daily, up 5.47% weekly and monthly, up 22.61% quarterly, and up 79.69% this year [3]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper closed at 88920, down 0.40% daily, up 1.70% weekly and monthly, up 7.07% quarterly, and up 20.54% this year. Aluminum oxide closed at 2670, down 0.26% daily, down 1.37% weekly and monthly, down 6.90% quarterly, and down 44.34% this year [3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas Macro: The US economy is in a low - speed adjustment range, with consumption showing a K - shaped development and employment cooling. The expectation of interest rate cuts has shifted from "expectation guidance" to "data confirmation". The "Hassett transaction" has strengthened the market's re - evaluation of the future policy framework, and the global financial conditions have improved. Dollar liquidity is becoming the main line of major assets in the next quarter, and the market expects the Fed to discuss balance - sheet expansion around December [5]. - Domestic Macro: In October, the profit margin of industrial enterprises continued to be under pressure due to weak domestic demand. However, with the joint promotion of policy - based financial instruments and special bonds, the forward - looking indices of enterprise investment and recruitment have significantly rebounded, and the expectation has improved. In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The overall domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, and the guiding role of policies on expectations is increasing [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - Overall, the overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains unchanged. The macro - environment is still friendly to risk assets. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [5]. 3.4 View Highlights - Financial Sector: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner as trading volume cannot support an upward attack. Stock index options are expected to move sideways as market sentiment is stable but volatility is differentiated. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner as long - end sentiment remains weak [6]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to move sideways as geopolitical and trade tensions ease, leading to a phased adjustment in precious metals [6]. - Shipping: The European container shipping line is expected to move sideways as the peak season in the third quarter has passed and there is a lack of upward momentum. Steel products are expected to move sideways as the macro - environment is warm and the market is strong [6]. - Black Building Materials: Most products in this sector, such as coking coal, silicon iron, and manganese silicon, are expected to move sideways as the macro - sentiment is warm and the sector shows strong performance [6]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Copper, aluminum, and lead are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while nickel is expected to fall in a volatile manner. Other non - ferrous metals are mostly expected to move sideways [6]. - Energy and Chemicals: PX, PTA, short - fiber, and other products are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to fall in a volatile manner. Most other energy and chemical products are expected to move sideways [8]. - Agriculture: Pulp is expected to move sideways after a sharp rise, and other agricultural products such as cotton, sugar, and livestock products have different short - term outlooks, mostly in a sideways or sideways - down trend [8].