股债双弱

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a weak performance in both stocks and bonds. The stock index futures experience a pullback in hot sectors, the implied volatility of stock index options fluctuates at a low level, and the bond market remains weak in the short - term but is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the medium - term [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - Stock Index Futures: On Tuesday, the sentiment in the equity market was weak, with sectors like computer, media, and new energy leading the decline, and only the dividend index being resilient. The factors contributing to the pullback are the sharp decline of Bitcoin against the US dollar on December 1st and the historical value - oriented style in December. Although it's unlikely to fall below the November low, the market is expected to be volatile in December, being stable before major meetings and facing risks in the second half of December. The recommended operation is to hold IM + dividend [1][7]. - Stock Index Options: On Tuesday, the trading volume of financial options decreased, and the implied volatility of each variety showed differentiation. The skewness remained at a high level, and the PCR of open interest decreased slightly, indicating weak market sentiment. In the short - term, the implied volatility may remain low, and the recommended strategy is to hold covered or short - put strategies. In the long - term, the market is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and it's advisable to pay attention to the layout window of far - month call options [2][7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On the previous day, treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally increased. The central bank's net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase had a stabilizing effect on the short - end of the bond market. The sharp decline of Vanke bonds and the non - exceeding - expected net investment of 50 billion yuan in treasury bond trading in November by the central bank were negative factors. However, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading may boost market sentiment, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The recommended strategies include trend, hedging, basis, and curve strategies [3][7][8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's SPGI manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9, lower than the previous value of 50.9 and the forecast value of 50.5. The SPGI services PMI for November and other data are yet to be released. In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the previous value of 48.7 and the forecast value of 49. Other data such as the ADP employment change and ISM non - manufacturing PMI for November are also pending release [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The director of the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to strengthen the domestic cycle, build a strong domestic market, and promote the coordinated resolution of risks in real estate, local government debt, and small and medium - sized financial institutions [9]. - As of December 1st, 27 provinces in China have fully implemented the direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals. - Six major state - owned banks and some other banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificates of deposit, and the term structure of large - denomination certificates of deposit has become "short - term" [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not presented in the provided content.