格林大华期货早盘提示-20251203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the Chinese stock market is expected to rise further in 2026, continuing this year's strong upward trend [2]. - A team led by the head of Asia at J.P. Morgan and the co - head of global emerging market equity strategy upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Due to the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which has a negative impact on the peripheral markets, the major indices of the two Chinese stock markets oscillated and declined on Tuesday. However, the markets have basically digested the external negative factors, and the shrinking trading volume shows that the selling pressure is not significant. The market is expected to continue to oscillate and recover in the future [1][2][3]. - The stock market's profit - making effect will trigger the reallocation of domestic and global funds, with overseas capital flowing back to the Chinese market. This round of market may become a bubble and reach a considerable height [3]. - In the next three years, there is unlikely to be an AI bubble as current GPUs, including older generations, are fully utilized [3]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, affected by the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the major indices of the two markets oscillated and declined. The trading volume was 1.59 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking trend during the adjustment. The CSI 300 index closed at 4,554 points, down 22 points or 0.48%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2,978 points, down 15 points or 0.51%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7,040 points, down 61 points or 0.87%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7,313 points, down 73 points or 1.00% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, the top - performing ones were 5G Communication ETF, Building Materials ETF, China State - owned Enterprises ETF, Infrastructure 50 ETF, and General Aviation ETF, while the worst - performing were Media ETF, Film and Television ETF, and Rare Metals ETF Fund. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top - performing were forestry, aquatic products, hotel and catering, real estate services, and petrochemical indices, and the worst - performing were household appliance parts, motor manufacturing, energy metals, gaming, and film and television theater indices [1]. - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, CSI 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 2.7 billion, 2.2 billion, 1.7 billion, and 1.2 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - As of the last trading day of November (November 28), among all the funds that individual pension can invest in (Y - share funds), the best - performing funds in 2025 are mainly index funds such as CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50, ChiNext 50, ChiNext, and SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 [1]. - DeepSeek released DeepSeek - V3.2 and DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale. DeepSeek - V3.2 aims to balance reasoning ability and output length for daily use and reaches the highest level of current open - source models in agent evaluation. DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale aims to push the reasoning ability of open - source models to the extreme [1]. - J.P. Morgan upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [2][3]. - Alibaba Group's CEO stated that Alibaba is making efforts in both AI - to - B and AI - to - C directions, and based on its ecological advantages, Qianwen APP is expected to create the future AI living entrance [2]. - International Finance Association data shows that in the first 10 months of this year, overseas capital flowing into the Chinese stock market totaled $50.6 billion, far exceeding the full - year figure of $11.4 billion in 2024 [2][3]. - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun said that China will win the artificial intelligence competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2][3]. - The Bank of Japan's expected interest rate hike has led to market concerns about a potential "carry - trade massacre" similar to that in December 2022 [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index in November was 48.2, lower than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48.7, indicating continuous contraction in the manufacturing industry [2]. - India's industrial output growth rate in October was much lower than that in September and the expected value, with manufacturing, mining, and power sectors all showing declines [2]. Market Logic - Affected by the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the major indices of the two markets oscillated and declined on Tuesday. The trading volume was 1.59 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking trend during the adjustment. The scale of newly - registered private equity fund products in October was only over 40 billion yuan, which is normal, but the existing scale increased by 1.14 trillion yuan, with an increase of more than 17 percentage points [1][2]. Future Outlook - The major indices of the two markets have basically digested the external negative factors, and the shrinking trading volume shows that the selling pressure is not significant. The market is expected to continue to oscillate and recover. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices for range trading [1][2][3]. - Traders' bullish sentiment on the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to over 85% [3]. Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The major indices of the two markets have basically digested the external negative factors, and the shrinking trading volume shows that the selling pressure is not significant. The market is expected to continue to oscillate and recover. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices for range trading [3]. - Stock index option trading: As the stock index is in the stage of oscillating recovery, look for opportunities to buy deep - out - of - the - money long - term call options on the stock index [3].