有色金属日报 2025-12-3-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions and provides strategy views for various non - ferrous metals. Overall, influenced by factors such as geopolitics, Fed's interest - rate decisions, supply - demand relationships in the industry, and cost factors, different metals show different price trends. Some metals are expected to be strong, some will be in a wide - range shock, and the report gives corresponding trading suggestions and price range references for each metal [5][7][10][12][14][16][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Information: Offshore RMB remained strong, domestic equity markets declined, and copper prices oscillated and corrected. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, and the spot import loss widened. The refined - scrap spread widened [4]. - Strategy View: Geopolitical factors still pose headwinds, but the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting. With an increased probability of interest - rate cuts, sentiment is positive. The copper raw - material supply remains tight, and smelting production - cut expectations drive copper prices higher. Short - term supply is expected to increase marginally. Copper prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range for Shanghai copper's main contract is 88,000 - 89,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 11,000 - 11,300 dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventory changes varied. The spot in the domestic market was at a discount to the futures, and the trading sentiment was weak [6]. - Strategy View: Domestic and LME aluminum ingot inventories are in a downward trend, and the inventory levels are relatively low. Coupled with supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the strong performance of copper prices, the center of aluminum price movement is expected to rise further. The operating range for Shanghai aluminum's main contract is 21,760 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [7]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index rose. LME lead price increased, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 175.01 yuan/ton [9]. - Strategy View: The visible inventory of lead ore increased, the operating rate of primary smelting decreased, and that of secondary smelting increased. Downstream battery enterprises' operating rates increased marginally, and domestic visible lead ingot inventory decreased. After two weeks of decline, lead prices returned to the 17,000 - yuan shock center. Fed's interest - rate cuts make the non - ferrous metal industry sentiment positive, and short - term lead prices are expected to be strong [10]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index rose. LME zinc price increased, and domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased. However, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory increased slightly after considering in - transit and factory inventories. The LME zinc monthly spread increased again [11]. - Strategy View: The visible inventory of zinc ore increased, but zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, squeezing smelting profits. Downstream operating rates decreased marginally. Although domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, the overall supply is still in a surplus situation. In the short term, the increase in the LME zinc monthly spread drives zinc prices higher, but in the medium term, zinc prices are expected to show a wide - range shock [12]. Tin - Market Information: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. In October, domestic tin concentrate imports increased significantly, but the conflict in the DRC worsened, affecting tin ore transportation. Yunnan's smelting enterprises still faced raw - material shortages, and Jiangxi's refined tin production remained low. Traditional consumption areas were weak, but emerging areas provided long - term support. After the tin price exceeded 300,000 yuan/ton, the market was reluctant to buy at high prices, and inventory decreased [13]. - Strategy View: Although the current tin market demand is weak, the downstream inventory is low, and the supply - side disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Short - term tin prices are likely to be in a strong shock. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for the domestic main contract is 290,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 38,000 - 41,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot premiums were stable, nickel ore prices were stable, and the decline in nickel - iron prices slowed down [15]. - Strategy View: The surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel - iron prices and the warming of the macro - environment, short - term nickel prices may turn to a shock. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the trends of nickel - iron and ore prices. The short - term operating range for Shanghai nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate declined, and the LC2605 contract price also decreased. The average battery - grade lithium carbonate premium in the trading market was - 450 yuan [18]. - Strategy View: In December, the production schedules of major cathode - material enterprises were mostly flat month - on - month, and domestic lithium carbonate production increased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease marginally, but there are large differences in medium - and long - term demand expectations. The price is likely to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 93,600 - 99,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index declined. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the overseas FOB price remained stable. The futures inventory was unchanged, and the ore prices were stable [21]. - Strategy View: Overseas ore shipments are expected to recover after the rainy season, and ore prices are expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel main contract price rose. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, raw - material prices were stable, futures inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [24]. - Strategy View: On the supply side, steel - mill production schedules are high, and spot arrivals are increasing. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement. However, the high cost of nickel - iron squeezes corporate profits. Although demand has recovered, the inventory pressure from high supply is still significant. The short - term stainless - steel price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The cast - aluminum alloy price oscillated. The main AD2601 contract price decreased slightly, the weighted contract position rebounded, the trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The price difference between AL2601 and AD2601 contracts widened, domestic mainstream ADC12 prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased [27]. - Strategy View: The cost of cast - aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and policy disruptions on the supply side continue. If the inventory continues to decline, the price of cast - aluminum alloy is expected to rise in a shock [28].