国投期货农产品日报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans 1: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Palm Oil: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆, denoting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies. Most products are expected to fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant information and market changes [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Beans 1 - Domestic soybeans are in short - term sideways consolidation, with stable spot prices and increasing domestic warehouse receipts. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has declined from a high level. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight, bringing a relatively strong expectation to the overall soybean market. US soybeans are mainly affected by South American weather and US soybean exports, and are expected to fluctuate strongly. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [2] 3.2 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are affected by South American weather and exports, and are expected to fluctuate strongly. The domestic soybean near - term shipping schedule crushing gross profit has deteriorated again, supporting soybean oil. The domestic soybean - palm oil price difference has adjusted from a high level. Malaysian palm oil had a slight production cut in November, but demand was weak, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. Due to flood problems in Southeast Asian producing areas, the supply side was disturbed, and prices stopped falling and rebounded. Overall, it is expected that soybean and palm oil will maintain range fluctuations [3] 3.3 Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Today's soybean futures opened high and closed low, with prices fluctuating weakly. Brazil's soybean planting rate is 78% with normal progress, while Argentina's is slow due to less rainfall. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the crushing volume has increased. The soybean meal inventory has rebounded to a high level, suppressing prices. The M2605 contract has risen to the upper edge of the shock platform, and the follow - up trend depends on US soybean exports and the impact of South American weather [5] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, the near - month main contract of rapeseed meal continued to decline with position reduction, and the main contract of rapeseed oil slightly declined. The arrival of Australian rapeseed in China eased the market's concern about the tight supply of rapeseed. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly in the process of de - stocking. The supply of rapeseed oil depends on Russian crushing and exports, and the demand benefits from the seasonal peak in the fourth quarter. Overall, the rapeseed series lacks trend - driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] 3.5 Corn - The spot price of corn in the northern port remains firm, and Northeast farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in lower - than - expected new grain supply. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the market favors high - quality Northeast grain, causing concerns about supply and transportation. The downstream corn inventory is generally very low, but the willingness to replenish inventory has increased. The new grain is still in the peak release period. In the short term, the Dalian corn futures 01 contract fluctuates at a high level, and the 03 and 05 contracts are waiting for a correction. In the medium term, the rebound range is limited, and a sharp rise in corn prices next year is not optimistic [7] 3.6 Live Pigs - The spot and futures prices of live pigs continue to weaken. With less than a month until the Winter Solstice, southern bacon - curing will gradually start, but there is also pressure on the supply side from the second - fattening of large hogs. The industry's average weight is still high, and there is a de - stocking process in the later stage. In the long - term, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a "double - bottom" feature, and it is expected that pig prices may have a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [8] 3.7 Eggs - The near - and far - month contracts of eggs show a differentiated trend, with a total increase of over 30,000 lots in positions. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in the laying - hen inventory in the medium - and long - term and have risen sharply. The near - month contracts are difficult to continue rising due to the premium of futures over spot prices and are trading the logic of price convergence. The current price difference between near - and far - month contracts is too large, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot market for near - month contracts [9]