宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年12月3日）-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The soybean meal market shows a differentiated trend of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with funds shifting to the 2605 contract. The soybean meal price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the range under the dual influence of cost support and ample supply. The palm oil market is relatively strong under the support of the external market and the weakening of the ringgit. The oil and fat sector will maintain a range - bound and slightly stronger operation, and key factors such as domestic de - stocking rhythm, South American weather changes, and international biodiesel policy trends need to be focused on [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - Short - term View: Oscillating [5] - Medium - term View: Oscillating [5] - Intraday View: Oscillating weakly [5] - Reference View: Oscillating weakly [5] - Core Logic: The market shows a differentiated trend of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with obvious signs of funds shifting to the 2605 contract. The US soybean futures price fluctuates between China's procurement expectations and South American weather changes. The reduction of rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina provides a weather theme, but the actual implementation of US soybean exports is still uncertain. Domestically, high soybean meal inventories and sufficient spot supply put pressure on the soybean meal basis. However, the logic of the forward market is different, and the strengthening of the M2605 contract reflects the market's concerns about the expected increase in future import costs and potential South American weather risks. In the short term, the soybean futures price will continue to oscillate weakly in the range under the dual influence of cost support and ample supply [5][6]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - Short - term View: Oscillating strongly [5] - Medium - term View: Oscillating [5] - Intraday View: Oscillating strongly [5] - Reference View: Oscillating strongly [5] - Core Logic: Palm oil is relatively strong under the support of the external market and the weakening of the ringgit. Currently, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats has continued to climb to 2445400 tons, and the palm oil inventory is at a historically high level in the same period, highlighting the pressure of spot supply. The overall demand side provides limited support for prices. The short - term market is caught in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Overall, the oil and fat sector maintains a range - bound and slightly stronger operation, and key factors such as domestic de - stocking rhythm, South American weather changes, and international biodiesel policy trends need to be focused on [7].