国新国证期货早报-20251203

Group 1: General Market Conditions - On December 2, 2025, A-share's three major indexes collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% to 3897.71 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.68% to 13056.70 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.69% to 3071.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1593.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 280.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index adjusted on December 2, closing at 4554.34, down 22.15 [2] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On December 2, the coke weighted index continued to rebound, closing at 1677.7, up 35.6; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1139.3 yuan, up 19.6 [2][3] - Coke supply is increasing, with significant inventory accumulation. Mine clean coal inventory increased by 20.44% in a single week, and coke plant inventory increased by 9.91% [4] - As of the end of October 2025, China's imported coking coal reached 98.869 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. In October, the total import volume was 10.5932 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.02% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%. From January to October, China's coke export volume was 6.2189 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.05%. In October, coke exports were 727,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34% and a year-on-year increase of 49.92% [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the supply outlook and weak technical indicators, US sugar tumbled on Monday. Under the influence of the decline in US sugar, the short sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to decline on Tuesday and in the night session [4] - Brazil's central-southern region produced 983,000 tons of sugar in the first half of November, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. The sugarcane crushing volume reached 18.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production dropped to 38.6% [4] Group 4: Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the rubber futures prices rebounded due to bargain hunting. The short sellers pressured the Shanghai Rubber futures to decline slightly in the night session [5] - ANRPC predicted that global natural rubber production in October would increase by 2.7% to 1.496 million tons, and consumption would decrease by 4.2% to 1.26 million tons. In the first 10 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.6% to 11.9 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.8% to 12.684 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [5] Group 5: Soybean Meal - On December 2, CBOT soybean futures prices slightly declined. The large expected production of South American soybeans suppressed the speculation of US soybean demand [5] - As of last Thursday, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans reached 89% of the expected area, compared with 91% in the same period last year. StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production would be 177.2 million tons. Argentina's soybean sowing was progressing smoothly, with a planting rate of over 20% [5] - On December 1, the M2601 contract closed at 3039 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. Currently, soybean supply is sufficient, crushing volume has increased, and soybean meal inventory is at a high level. The domestic soybean meal futures market is in a situation of cost support and supply pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 6: Live Pigs - On December 2, the LH2601 contract closed at 11455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35%. In the short term, as the end of the year approaches, most large-scale pig enterprises are more willing to sell pigs to meet their annual targets, and the number of pigs for sale has increased, putting pressure on prices [5] - The demand for pork has increased marginally due to the drop in temperature, and the traditional bacon-making season has started in the southwest region, but the overall progress is slow, and the demand recovery is gentle. The live pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [5] Group 7: Palm Oil - On December 2, the main palm oil contract continued to move positions and rebound. The price briefly opened lower and then quickly rose, closing at 8720, up 0.79%. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 30 was 779,392 tons, a decrease of 39.21% compared with the same period last month [5] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper 2601 contract showed a weak pattern of opening high and closing low. The linkage between futures and spot and between domestic and foreign markets weakened, and the trading activity decreased. The contract opened at 89410 yuan/ton, reached a high of 89920 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 88920 yuan/ton [6] - The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve supported the US dollar, suppressing global copper demand and causing funds to flow out of the non-ferrous metal sector. Traditional demand is weak, and the copper consumption in the real estate sector is under pressure. The supply-side positive factors cannot offset these two pressures [6] Group 9: Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 13720 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 96 lots compared with the previous trading day. Xinjiang's cotton purchase is basically over, and it is in the peak processing period. The commercial inventory is growing rapidly and is significantly higher than the same period last year [6] Group 10: Iron Ore - On December 2, the main iron ore 2601 contract fluctuated and closed up 0.5% at 800.5 yuan. The shipping volume increased month-on-month, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased again. In the off-season, as the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, the molten iron output continued to decline, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [6] Group 11: Asphalt - On December 2, the main asphalt 2601 contract fluctuated and declined 2.41% to close at 2916 yuan. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan decreased month-on-month, the inventory decreased, the demand entered the off-season, and the downstream procurement was cautious. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate [6] Group 12: Logs - On December 2, the log 2601 contract opened at 767.5, with a minimum of 767.5, a maximum of 774.5, and closed at 769.5, with a decrease of 1151 lots in positions. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, and the price in Jiangsu was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [6][7] Group 13: Steel - On December 2, the rb2601 contract closed at 3169 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3325 yuan/ton. The total new house sales area in ten major cities was 2.1112 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 38%. The real estate market is still at a low level. Due to the rush to complete infrastructure projects in some areas, demand has remained resilient, and steel inventory is expected to continue to decline. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7] Group 14: Alumina - On December 2, the ao2601 contract closed at 2670 yuan/ton. The trading logic of alumina supply exceeding demand continues, and the upward pressure remains. Domestic alumina production capacity is high, the import window is open, and the arrival of imported alumina will further exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand. Demand is weak, and the spot market trading is cold [7][8] Group 15: Shanghai Aluminum - On December 2, the al2601 contract closed at 21910 yuan/ton. The inhibitory effect of high aluminum prices on consumption has gradually eased, and some postponed demand has begun to be released. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, and primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors have all improved to varying degrees. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8]