宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年12月3日）-20251203

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is "偏强", the medium - term view is "震荡", the intraday view is "震荡偏强", and the reference view is "观望". The core logic is the升温 of interest - rate cut expectations and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation [1] - For copper, the short - term view is "震荡", the medium - term view is "强势", the intraday view is "强势", and the reference view is "长线看强". The core logic is macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Yesterday in the domestic night session, the gold price weakened continuously, with New York gold dropping to 4200 US dollars and Shanghai gold falling below the 950 - yuan mark, then it stabilized and rebounded [3] - Since late November, the upward momentum of the gold price has come from the continuous increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the decline of the US dollar index. The current market expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December is close to 90%, with limited upside space. The weak gold trend is due to the recovery of market risk appetite. Technically, attention should be paid to the 4200 - dollar support, corresponding to the 950 - yuan mark of Shanghai gold [3] Copper - Yesterday, the copper price rose and then fell again, with little change in the open interest. In the short term, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 580,000 contracts, showing obvious upward movement with increased positions, strong upward momentum. But there is strong technical pressure above, facing the high - level pressure of the past five years, the long - short game intensifies, and the intraday fluctuation is large [4]