尿素早评20251203：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of oversupply in supply and demand. However, from the perspective of driving factors, urea prices are supported at low levels. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to opportunities for buying on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Urea Futures Prices: On December 2, UR01 closed at 1,687 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.72%) from December 1; UR05 closed at 1,752 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan (0.46%); UR09 closed at 1,768 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.28%) [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): Shandong was 1,680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.59%); Shanxi was 1,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.65%); Henan and Hebei remained unchanged; Northeast was 1,740 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (1.16%); Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was -72 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was -65 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [1]. - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream Prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.33%); the price of another fertilizer was 2,620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.77%); the price of melamine in Shandong was 5,217 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan (0.52%); in Jiangsu, it was 0 yuan/ton, down 5,200 yuan (-100%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,680 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,689 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,671 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,687 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,682 yuan/ton. The position volume was 219,302 lots [1]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Logic - Valuation: The rebound of urea from the bottom is not large, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1]. - Driving Factors: A new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to a certain extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1].