国泰君安期货所长早读-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump is expected to announce a new Federal Reserve Chairman early next year, with Kevin Hassett being the likely candidate [7]. - The US holiday shopping season had a strong start, and the OECD has raised its economic growth forecasts for the US and the Eurozone [20]. - The Eurozone's November CPI rebounded to 2.2%, making a December interest - rate cut by the European Central Bank "highly unlikely" [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals and Minerals Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest - rate cuts has rebounded. Gold prices are on an upward trend, with a trend strength of 1 [17]. - Silver: It is accelerating and reaching new highs, with a trend strength of 1 [17]. Base Metals - Copper: The spot market is strong, supporting the price, with a trend strength of 1 [21]. - Zinc: There is support at the lower level, with a trend strength of 1 [24]. - Lead: Inventory reduction supports the price, with a trend strength of 0 [27]. - Tin: Supply has been disrupted again, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. - Aluminum: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [33]. - Alumina: It is still searching for a bottom, with a trend strength of 0 [33]. - Platinum: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [37]. - Palladium: There is a possibility of an upward movement as the NYMEX - London price spread widens, with a trend strength of 0 [37]. - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, and it is trading in a low - level oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - Stainless Steel: High inventory and weak supply - demand, with cost limiting the downside, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals Energy - Crude Oil: Not specifically mentioned in the report. Chemicals - Synthetic Rubber: It has short - term event - driven upward movement, but the upside space is narrowing. The short - term price of butadiene is stable and oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved [8][9]. - LLDPE: The basis has turned positive, and the supply remains loose. There is a need to pay attention to the supply - demand pressure caused by high production capacity and weakening demand in the medium term [80][81]. - PP: It has a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend still faces pressure due to high supply and weak demand [83][84]. - Caustic Soda: The trend still faces pressure due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [87][89]. - Paper Pulp: It is in an oscillating operation. The core contradiction has not fundamentally changed, and attention should be paid to port inventory and downstream procurement [92][94]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. Capacity reduction has boosted market confidence, but overall trading is average [96][97]. - Methanol: It is in an oscillating operation, and the upside space is narrowing. The high supply pressure in the domestic market is the main contradiction in the 01 contract [99][103]. - Urea: The price center has shifted upward, and attention should be paid to inventory. The fundamental driver is neutral, and the price is supported by the reduction of explicit inventory [106][109]. - Styrene: It is in a short - term oscillation. The short - term pure benzene market is oscillating, and the supply pressure of styrene is not large [110][111]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. Supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is general [113]. - LPG: The trend is under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [115][120]. - Propylene: The pattern remains loose, with a trend strength of - 1 [116][120]. - PVC: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term is not suitable for short - selling, but it still faces high -开工 and weak - demand before the 03 contract [124][125]. - Fuel Oil: The night - session price declined, and the weakness reappeared, with a trend strength of - 1 [127][128]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It has weakened in the short - term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [128]. 3.3 Agriculture Grains and Oilseeds - Corn: It is in an oscillating operation, with a trend strength of 0 [162][165]. - Soybean Meal: It lacks new sales, and the decline of US soybeans has led to an adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [159][161]. - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating, with a trend strength of 0 [159][161]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The prices of most regions are stable or slightly weak, with a trend strength of 0 [182][184]. Soft Commodities - Sugar: The production in India has increased significantly. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with a trend strength of - 1 [166][168]. - Cotton: The supply and demand are both strong. The spot trading is still light, and the price of cotton yarn has been partially raised [170][171]. - Egg: The volume of culling has increased, and the overall sentiment is strong, with a trend strength of 0 [176]. - Live Pig: An increase in supply is expected, and the industrial logic is returning, with a trend strength of - 1 [178][180]. - Palm Oil: It is waiting for the confirmation of the inflection point and is currently in a range - bound operation. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil in November decreased [152][153]. - Soybean Oil: The driving force from US soybeans is insufficient, and it is in an oscillating operation, with a trend strength of 0 [152][158]. 3.4 Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): It is expected to continue to repair its valuation in the short - term and be in an oscillating market in the medium - term. The strategy is to wait and see for the 02 contract and maintain rolling short - selling for the 04 contract [130][140].