国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251203

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on December 3, 2025, covering iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs [1][2] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil markets feature long - short battles and wide - range oscillations [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are all in wide - range oscillations [2][12][16] - Logs are in low - level oscillations [2][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price was 800.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (-0.06%); the previous day's position was 358,611 lots, down 18,063 lots. Spot prices of various types of ore remained unchanged. Some basis and spreads changed slightly [4] - News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Trend Strength: -1, indicating a bearish view [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.35%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,325 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.30%). Spot prices in some regions changed slightly, and some basis and spreads also changed [8] - News: In the week of November 27, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 21.86 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.21 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.85 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.31 tons. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 22 tons month - on - month. In October 2025, national steel production data showed various changes, and import and export data also fluctuated [9][10] - Trend Strength: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts decreased to varying degrees. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese and related raw materials had some changes, and basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads also changed [12] - News: On December 2, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. In October 2025, South Africa's manganese ore export volume increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with different trends in exports to different countries. Hengyang Steel Pipe finalized the ferrosilicon purchase price [13][14] - Trend Strength: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and basis and spreads changed [16] - News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [17] - Trend Strength: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17] Logs - Fundamentals: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of different contracts had various changes. Spot prices of different types of logs and wood squares in different regions had different trends [19] - News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [21] - Trend Strength: 0, indicating a neutral view [21]