国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Various commodities in the futures market show different trends. For example, gold's降息预期回升, and silver is加速冲刺，再创新高. Copper's price is supported by strong spot prices, while zinc has support at the lower level. Lead's price is supported by inventory reduction, and tin's supply is disrupted again [2][6][10]. - The market for some commodities is in a state of wide - range oscillation, such as iron ore, whose downstream demand space is limited and valuation is high;螺纹钢 and热轧卷板 are experiencing a multi - empty game in the market and wide - range oscillations [2][42][45]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold: With the recovery of interest - rate cut expectations, the prices of沪金2512 and黄金T+D increased by 1.05% and 1.15% respectively yesterday. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. - Silver: It is accelerating and hitting new highs. The prices of沪银2512 and白银T+D rose significantly, with daily increases of 4.46% and 4.72% respectively. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. 3.2 Base Metals - Copper: The spot price is strong, supporting the price. The沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.40% yesterday. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. The trend intensity is 1 [10][12]. - Zinc: There is support at the lower level. The沪锌主力收盘价 increased by 0.69% yesterday. The trend intensity is 1 [13]. - Lead: Inventory reduction supports the price. The沪铅主力收盘价 rose by 0.79% yesterday. The trend intensity is 0 [17]. - Tin: Supply is disrupted again. The沪锡主力合约 increased by 0.50% yesterday. The trend intensity is 0 [20]. - Aluminum: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The氧化铝 is still searching for the bottom, and the铸造铝合金 follows the electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [23]. - Platinum: It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [26]. - Palladium: The price difference between NYMEX and London has widened, with the possibility of an upward movement. The trend intensity is 0 [27]. - Nickel: The fundamentals limit the upward elasticity, and it is in a low - level oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. - Stainless Steel: With high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limiting the downward space, it is in an oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Spot trading is weak, and the high - level oscillation continues. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - Industrial Silicon: It is mainly in a weak operation. The trend intensity is - 1 [39]. - Polysilicon: It is in an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to subsequent warrant registration. The trend intensity is 0 [39]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The trend intensity is - 1 [42]. - Rebar: There is a multi - empty game in the market, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [45]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: There is a multi - empty game in the market, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [46]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [50]. - Manganese Silicide: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [50]. - Coke: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. - Coking Coal: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Wait for the confirmation of the inflection point and conduct range - bound operations for the time being [5]. - Soybean Oil: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it is mainly in an oscillation [5]. - Soybean Meal: There is a lack of new sales, and US soybeans continue to fall, leading to an adjustment in the continuous contract. - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating [5]. - Corn: It is in an oscillating operation [5]. - Sugar: India's sugar production has increased significantly [5]. - Cotton: Supply and demand are both strong [5]. - Egg: The volume of culling has increased, and the overall sentiment is strong [5]. - Live Pig: An increase in supply is coming, and the industrial logic is returning [5]. - Peanut: Pay attention to the spot price [5].