Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be on the sidelines and not chased higher [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions at high levels; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to trade strongly sideways [1][10][13][15] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17][25] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade strongly sideways; PTA is expected to rise in a sideways trend; apples are expected to trade strongly sideways; red dates are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][26][29] - Agricultural and livestock: For live pigs, near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and be cautious about chasing rallies in far - term contracts; egg prices are limited in their upward movement; corn suggests hedging on rallies; soybean meal is mainly for range operations; oils are expected to rebound from lows, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][30][35][41] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across different industries. It analyzes the fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors affecting each product, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock indices: The external environment has improved, but the market rotation is fast. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: After entering December, institutional behavior may be the core variable affecting the bond market. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. It is recommended for range trading [7] - Rebar: It is in a policy vacuum period. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is expected to trade sideways at low levels, mainly for short - term trading [7] - Glass: Although there are rumors of production line shutdowns causing a rebound in the futures market, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the year - end demand is weak. It is not advisable to chase higher in the near - term contracts [9] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) is complex. The long - term demand is optimistic, but the short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended for range short - term trading [10] - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment has improved, and it may continue to rebound in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels [11] - Nickel: The supply is expected to be loose in the long term. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [13] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply recovery and downstream demand improvement, and for range trading [13] - Gold and silver: Supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and safe - haven demand, gold is for range trading, and silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions [15] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected to trade strongly sideways. Pay attention to the progress of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of Ningde Jiaxiawo lithium mine [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading, and pay attention to policies and cost - side disturbances [17] - Caustic soda: The valuation is suppressed by the expectation of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to wait and watch [19] - Styrene: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways, and pay attention to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [19] - Rubber: The market is bearish, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended for range trading [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways [22] - Methanol: The supply in the inland has recovered, and the port inventory has decreased. It is recommended for range trading [24] - Polyolefins: The inventory is decreasing, but the demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade sideways in the range, and PP is expected to trade weakly sideways [25] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and watch [25] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Although the global supply - demand data is loose, the recent domestic cotton sales are fast, and the yarn price is firm, so they are expected to trade strongly sideways [26] - PTA: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to rise in a sideways trend, with a focus on the range of 4600 - 4900 [27] - Apples: The inventory is mainly sold as needed, and the price is expected to trade strongly sideways [28] - Red dates: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%, and the price is expected to trade weakly sideways [29] Agricultural and Livestock - Live pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the long term, the capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. The near - term contracts are for short - selling on rallies, and be cautious about chasing rallies in the far - term contracts [30][31] - Eggs: In the short term, the supply - demand is marginally improved, and the price has support. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. The 01 contract has a large premium over the spot, and the price increase is limited [31][32] - Corn: In the short term, there is still selling pressure, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies. In the long term, the cost support is strong, but the supply - demand is relatively loose, and the upward space is limited [33][34] - Soybean meal: It is mainly for range operations, and spot enterprises can fix the basis for December - January [35][36] - Oils: In the short term, the trends of different oils are differentiated. In the long term, they are expected to trade in a wide range. Be cautious about chasing rallies in soybean and palm oils, and pay attention to Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data and the December MPOB report [37][41]
2025年12月03日：期货市场交易指引-20251203
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-12-03 02:34