碳酸锂日评：逢高沽空-20251203

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong, and the news of lithium mine复产 is repeated The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level, the downstream观望 sentiment is still strong, the spot market trading is light, the demand growth is stagnant, and the exchange intervenes to cool down It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly The trading strategy is to short at high prices [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Near - two - week Market Trends - Futures Prices: On December 2, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 94,960 yuan/ton, 94,860 yuan/ton, 95,140 yuan/ton, and 95,140 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 40 yuan/ton, - 260 yuan/ton, - 420 yuan/ton, and - 420 yuan/ton compared to the previous day The trading volume was 454,290 lots (- 81,185), and the open interest was 552,239 lots (+ 8,606) [2] - Spot Prices: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, and cathode materials also showed different degrees of change [2] - Spreads and Basis: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures prices also changed For example, the basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the active contract closing price of lithium carbonate was - 2,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 430 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Industry News Kodal Minerals shipped 28,950 tons of lithium minerals from its Bougouni mine in southern Mali to a destination port in Hainan, China The company has produced a total of 45,000 tons of concentrates at the Bougouni concentrator, and the remaining 16,000 tons will be gradually exported in batches The expected unit price of the lithium concentrate will exceed 930 US dollars/dry ton [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased in salt - lake production but increased in other raw material production The registered warehouse receipts were 8,992 tons (+ 770 tons), and the social inventory situation was also provided [2] - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased In December, the production scheduling of lithium carbonate and lithium decreased, and the production of power batteries rebounded last week In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the shipment volume weakened, and the production scheduling growth of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [2] 3.4 Inventory Situation The SNN lithium carbonate inventory includes inventories of smelters, downstream, and others The total inventory was 118,420 tons, showing a certain change trend compared to previous periods [2]