铅锌日评20251203：区间整理-20251203

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the price oscillated and declined. Considering the tight raw material supply and reduced supply, the downside space for lead prices is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. - For zinc, the mine supply is continuously tightening, and the TC is likely to fall. It may have an impact on the supply side, providing some support for zinc prices. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations, and also wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Lead - Price and Market Data: On December 3, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,050 yuan/ton, up 0.44%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,210 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The trading volume of the active futures contract was 52,077 lots, up 34.28%; the open interest was 47,601 lots, up 0.88%. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 256,950 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9.43% to 18,131 tons [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. However, it has not yet had a substantial impact on smelter operations. Last week, more smelters were under maintenance, and the production of primary lead decreased. In the secondary lead sector, a smelter in Yunnan reduced production due to maintenance. The lead price fell below 17,000 yuan, and smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices. The inventory of primary lead increased, while that of secondary lead decreased. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is gradually weakening, while the automotive battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: On December 3, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,670 yuan/ton, up 0.80%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,745 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The trading volume of the active futures contract was 122,766 lots, down 4.31%; the open interest was 106,325 lots, up 0.54%. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 52,375 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.00% to 63,804 tons [1]. - Fundamentals: Economically, smelters are actively purchasing domestic zinc ores, and the domestic ore supply is tight. The processing fees in many regions have been continuously reduced. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons per month, and the production has not been affected. The demand is still weak, and the construction in the north has stopped due to cold weather, and some downstream operations have been affected by environmental protection [1]. Industry News - Saudi Arabia has launched a tender for three mineral exploration licenses, covering an area of 13,000 square kilometers. The country is accelerating the exploitation of deposits estimated at 9.4 trillion riyals (2.50 trillion US dollars), including areas with potential for gold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead mining [1]. - A zinc mine in South China resumed production after maintenance in November, with an expected increase of about 2,000 metal tons of zinc concentrate. A zinc mine in North China will undergo a 10 - day maintenance in December, with an expected reduction of about 500 metal tons of zinc concentrate. A zinc mine in Central China has gradually resumed production after maintenance, with an expected increase of about 1,000 metal tons of zinc concentrate [1].