华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251203

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a downward - centering and weak manner, and will be in an oscillatory consolidation state, with attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the inventory shows a slight decline, and the price is expected to be short - term strong but under great pressure at the end of the year. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, and changes in the ratio of inventory to consumption [1][4] Summary by Related Content 成材 (Finished Products) - Yungui area short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] 原材料 - 铝 (Raw Materials - Aluminum) - In November, China's bauxite production decreased by 1.56% month - on - month and 5.26% year - on - year; domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.47% year - on - year and decreased by 2.82% month - on - month. Since November, electrolytic aluminum has gradually shifted from the peak consumption season to the off - season, with a decline in downstream operating rates and a lower proportion of molten aluminum [3] - In December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Some new electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to start production from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, and attention should be paid to the relevant commissioning progress [3] - Last week, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing materials increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.3%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy, recycled aluminum alloy, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables increased slightly, while that of sheet - strip - foil remained flat. The auto - related fields are relatively stable, but the construction industry is still sluggish [3] - On December 1, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 596,000 tons, the same as last Thursday and 17,000 tons lower than last Monday [3] 有色金属 (Non - ferrous Metals) - Supported by macro - sentiment, there is still an expectation of tightened overseas supply in the fundamentals. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season, there is a short - term delay in consumption realization, and the inventory trend is volatile. The price is expected to be short - term strong but under great pressure at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to macro - guidance and the ratio of inventory to consumption [4]