华宝期货晨报铁矿石：板块高位震荡，关注宏观驱动-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has significantly increased. This week enters the macro window period, and it is expected that the weight of macro drivers will increase [3]. - The improvement of the domestic finished product inventory structure, the relatively low decline rate of iron ore demand, and the restrictions on port spot trading jointly push up the spot price. The basis of the futures contract is reverting from the futures to the spot. Later, attention should be paid to the pressure on inventory depletion brought by the increase in rebar production [3]. - Throughout the year, both from the perspective of the weak industrial reality and seasonal patterns, molten iron production will show a downward trend, and the inventory will generally tend to accumulate. In the short - term, it will mainly fluctuate within a range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has increased compared to the previous week. Among them, the shipment from Australia has slightly recovered, and the shipment from Brazil has recovered significantly. According to seasonal patterns and the shipment targets of major mines this year, the peak supply period of foreign mines may have passed, and the supply pressure may decrease later [3]. Demand - Domestic demand continues to decline month - on - month. The seasonal decline in demand and the significant decline in the blast furnace profitability rate will limit the upside of prices. According to Mysteel's survey, 10 new blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance this period, and 3 blast furnaces were restarted. Blast furnace maintenance mainly occurred in the southern region due to the expansion of losses and weakening demand. Blast furnace restarts occurred in Hebei and Jiangsu after the end of maintenance. As raw material prices rise, the loss range of steel mills has further expanded, and the profitability rate has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past three years [3]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel mill end remains at a relatively low level. High prices have suppressed the restocking demand. Later, attention should be paid to when the steel mills will fully start restocking. Port inventory has started to accumulate again, mainly because the arrival volume has increased month - on - month. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [3]. Price - The price will operate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 101.5 - 103.5 US dollars/ton [3]. Strategy - Adopt range - bound operation and sell call options [3].