黑色建材日报：宏观预期继续发力，钢价区间震荡运行-20251203

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The steel market is affected by macro - expectations, with steel prices oscillating in a range. The iron ore market has a warming macro - atmosphere, and ore prices continue to fluctuate. The coking coal and coke market shows a "supply rising, demand weak" weak - balance state, and prices continue to oscillate. The power coal market is in a weak state with low downstream demand and high inventory [1][3][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3133 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3325 yuan/ton. Today's spot steel transactions were generally weak, and the terminal's willingness to accept the price - increased spot was low. The national building materials transaction volume was 9.82 tons [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: The output of finished steel increased slightly, the inventory decline slowed down, and the plate inventory remained high. The current consumption of finished steel was stable, but its sustainability was questionable. The consumption expectation of plates was better. The short - term fundamental contradiction was not prominent, and the macro - policy atmosphere continued to boost market expectations [1] - Strategy: Unilateral trading strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices rose slightly, with the 2601 contract closing at 800.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices rose slightly, the trading atmosphere was dull, and supply - demand was loose. The cumulative transaction volume at major national ports was 96.4 tons, a 11.32% increase from the previous day [3] - Supply and Demand Logic: The molten iron output decreased, the steel mill profitability rate was continuously compressed, and there was an expectation of a seasonal decline in molten iron. The rigid demand support weakened, and the restocking demand was not significantly released. Port inventory increased significantly, and steel mill imported ore inventory declined, with structural contradictions being more prominent than overall inventory contradictions [3] - Strategy: Unilateral trading strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the black commodity sector was generally strong and oscillating, and the coking coal and coke futures prices rose slightly. The current market inquiry activity for imports was low, the port quotations were weak, and the trading volume declined [5] - Logic and Views: In the off - season of downstream steel consumption, the coking coal and coke market will present a weak - balance state of "rising supply and weak demand" in the short term. For coking coal, mine production is gradually recovering, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remains high, with supply expected to be loose. Downstream coking enterprises have limited procurement enthusiasm. For coke, production enthusiasm has improved, but downstream steel mills are in continuous losses, and their procurement attitude is cautious [5][6] - Strategy: Unilateral trading strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Power Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, coal prices continued to be weak, downstream mainly carried out long - term contract transportation, and non - power coal was purchased as needed. Port inventory accumulated rapidly, quotations continued to loosen, downstream demand was poor, and actual transactions were few. Import coal tender prices continued to decline, and some traders took profits and sold [6] - Demand and Logic: Recently, coal prices have been in a weak state due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and relatively high inventory. In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and restocking [6] - Strategy: No strategy is provided [7]