国泰海通晨报-20251203
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-03 03:06

Macro Research - The outlook for 2026 suggests a potential diminishing multiplier effect from durable goods subsidies, with price recovery largely dependent on effective fiscal input, particularly towards consumption and services [2][4] - In a neutral scenario, both CPI and PPI are expected to see a moderate upward shift [2][4] Retail and Service Research - The company Emei Mountain A is expected to benefit from the renovation of the Golden Summit cableway and the construction of Leshan Airport, enhancing the scenic area's capacity and visitor experience, which will drive traffic growth and profit recovery [2][6] - The renovation of the Golden Summit cableway will increase its capacity from approximately 1,200 people per hour to 3,200 people per hour, representing a 167% increase, which will alleviate peak waiting times and enhance visitor spending [8] - Leshan Airport is projected to facilitate tourist growth, with a designed annual throughput of 2.6 million passengers, expected to connect with existing highway networks to create a direct transport corridor to major scenic spots [8] Company Coverage - Emei Mountain A is rated as "Buy" with a target price of 20.65 CNY, compared to the current price of 14.46 CNY, reflecting a market capitalization of 761.9 million [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 251 million CNY, 308 million CNY, and 346 million CNY for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.48 CNY, 0.59 CNY, and 0.66 CNY [7] - The company has established a diversified business ecosystem through a full industry chain layout, including ticket sales, cableway operations, hotels, and various derivative businesses [7] Market Potential - Emei Mountain's visitor numbers were 4.67 million in 2024, significantly lower than other comparable sites, indicating substantial room for market growth through improved transportation and product upgrades [9] - The company has demonstrated strong unit visitor value conversion capabilities, with total tourism revenue of 1.013 billion CNY in 2024, higher than that of Jiuhua Mountain [9]